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Economic growth from short-term high to low overall stability. From the 13 sub-indices, the export orders index, backlog index, raw material inventory index, employee index, and production activity expectation index rose slightly in May compared with the previous month. The new orders index was unchanged from the previous month, and the remaining seven indices declined. In the decline index, the finished goods inventory index, raw material purchase price index, and ex-factory price index fell by more than 1 percentage point, and the remaining four indexes fell by less than 1 percentage point.
Zhang Liqun, a researcher at the Development Research Center of the State Council, believes that following the fall in April, the PMI in May was the same as that of the previous month, and remained above the glory line for 10 consecutive months, indicating that the economic growth is further clear. Economic growth is shifting from a short-term high to a steady trend.
The overall supply and demand relationship in the market is good. The growth of supply and demand is basically stable and balanced. In May, the production index was 53.4%, a slight drop of 0.4 percentage points from April, and remained above 53% for eight consecutive months. The new order index was 52.3%, which was the same as in April and remained above 52% for eight consecutive months. At present, the gap between the production index and the new order index has narrowed to about 1 percentage point, which is in a more reasonable state, which is conducive to market clearing, improving supply quality, promoting rational flow of resources and optimizing allocation.
The production and operation of the company is in good condition. The PMI of large enterprises has remained at a relatively high level, and has remained above 51% since June 2016, with a slight decline in the last two months. The medium-sized enterprise PMI has remained above 50% since the beginning of this year, and it has risen markedly in May, reaching 51.3%, up 1.1 percentage points from April. Small business PMI rose for three consecutive months, rising to 50% in April and 51% in May, the highest in the last five years.
“The overall production and operation situation of the enterprise is good. On the one hand, the macroeconomic environment continues to be stable and the market is improving; on the other hand, it benefits from the favorable policies.†Chen Zhongtao, an analyst at China Logistics Information Center, said that the government’s tax reduction for enterprises is constantly Increased, in 2016, corporate tax cuts will be more than 570 billion yuan, and will be reduced by about 350 billion yuan in 2017. The State Council executive meeting held on April 19 launched a series of tax cuts and gave a specific timetable to continue to push the real economy to reduce costs and increase stamina. These policy measures have enabled enterprises to truly benefit and stimulate the vitality of the market.
The fundamentals of the industry are good. In terms of the industry PMI trend, in May, among the 21 industry categories in the manufacturing PMI survey, 14 industries had a PMI increase from April. Among them, the PMI of the consumer goods industry rose most obviously, and the overall level rose by 1.6 percentage points to 53.8%. The PMI of the equipment manufacturing, high-tech industries and consumer goods industries maintained a relatively high level, reaching more than 52%, which played a more prominent supporting role for the overall stability of the manufacturing industry.
The leading role of consumption-driven continues to increase. In May, China’s non-manufacturing business activity index was 54.5%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month. Among them, the new orders, new export orders and business activity expectations index increased by 0.4-1.4 percentage points from the previous month; the other major indexes decreased by 0.1-1.4 percentage points.
Cai Jin, vice president of the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, believes that in May, China’s non-manufacturing business activity index remained above 54% for eight consecutive months, indicating that the growth rate of non-manufacturing business activities has accelerated, indicating the driving force for the optimization and upgrading of the economic structure. Further enhancements. In particular, the index of business activity in the retail industry has risen sharply. The postal delivery activities related to online consumption have continued to develop rapidly. The index of tourism-related industries such as accommodation and scenic service industries has continued to rise, reflecting the active consumption of the masses and the leading role of consumption-driven. .
First, the retail business activity index and the new order index reflecting the consumption of residents have increased significantly from the previous month, and the average value of January-May has improved significantly compared with the same period of last year. Second, the postal delivery activities related to online consumption continue to be fast. The development trend, the business activity index and the new order index all rose to more than 60%; the third is the residential and scenic service industries and tourism-related industries continue to be active, the index rose for the second consecutive month.
"Comprehensively, with the stabilization of the economic situation, the promotion of supply-side structural reforms, the stimulation of market vitality, and the enhancement of economic growth, the effects of a series of policy measures have gradually appeared, and the economic operation has continued to stabilize and stabilize since the second half of last year." Chen Zhongtao said, "At present, on the one hand, we must pay attention to keeping the price trend stable, avoiding the price falling too fast, and restraining the enthusiasm of the production and operation activities of enterprises; on the other hand, we must pay attention to maintaining stable market demand and stable production and operation activities of large enterprises, and continue to promote the economy. Structural adjustment and transformation and upgrading."
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Abstract The China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing and the National Bureau of Statistics Service Industry Research Center released on the 31st. The China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was 51.2% in May, unchanged from the previous month. From the main sub-index, the finished goods inventory index, purchase price and ex-factory price index...
The China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing and the National Bureau of Statistics Service Industry Research Center released on the 31st. The China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was 51.2% in May, unchanged from the previous month. From the main sub-indices, the decline in finished goods inventory index, purchase price and ex-factory price index is more obvious, with a drop of more than 1 percentage point, and the rest of the index has not changed much. PMI shows that the current economic operation continues to remain stable and positive.