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China Securities Journal reporter yesterday called Ge Weidong's chaotic investment, but failed to confirm the rumors. An insider of Chaos Investment revealed that chaotic investment does not have samarium-cobalt behavior, and the rumors in the market are fake, and there is nothing wrong with it.
Metallic cobalt is a small metal, not a rare metal. China Securities Journal reporter found that metal cobalt has become a "new star" in the non-ferrous metal market. Some brokers have published a number of research reports on the price increase of cobalt and recommended Huayou Cobalt, Luoyang Molybdenum, GEM and other cobalt prices. Soaring related stocks. Some insiders have questioned that there may be speculation in the market for cobalt prices, and the profit-making behavior through the linkage effect between commodities and stocks.
Cobalt concept stocks rose after the Spring Festival
Since the Spring Festival, as of February 28th, Beijing time, LME spot cobalt price has increased by nearly 30%, but the share of Huayou Cobalt, the leading concept of cobalt, has risen by more than 50%. In the current lack of hot spots in the A-share market, Huayou Cobalt has become the focus of investors' attention, just like metal cobalt.
Why is metal cobalt rising? Why is the market rumored that the futures are smashing “囤Coâ€, what is the story behind the soaring cobalt price? A series of questions are placed in front of investors.
Metallic cobalt is not a rare metal, which ranks 33 in the earth's crust abundance. It is generally believed that cobalt is difficult to form an independent economic deposit, and cobalt is usually a by-product of copper or nickel ore. Currently, the lithium battery industry is already the largest application area of ​​cobalt. Lithium-ion and new-energy vehicles are important “windows†in the A-share market in recent years. Due to good expectations for new energy vehicles, the prices of upstream and downstream concept stocks in the entire industry chain have risen sharply.
Huayou Cobalt said in its performance forecast on January 19, 2017 that lithium-ion battery materials and new energy vehicle power battery materials for cobalt, such as 3C electronic products (ie, computers, communications, consumer electronics) As demand increased, the company's cobalt product prices rebounded considerably; at the same time, the company's IPO fundraising project capacity was further released, cobalt production and sales increased steadily, operating costs decreased, and product profitability continued to improve. In addition, the prices of copper and nickel products have also stabilized and rebounded, maintaining a certain profitability. The above-mentioned main factors make the company's 2016 annual operating results compared with the same period of the previous year, to achieve a turnaround, to achieve a net profit of 50 million to 75 million yuan attributable to shareholders of listed companies.
Luoyang Molybdenum is also a highly concerned cobalt concept stock, and its share price has increased by nearly 30% since the Spring Festival. According to the latest research report of a brokerage, in 2016 Luoyang Molybdenum acquired a Congo (gold) copper and cobalt project through non-public offering of shares. The Luoyang Molybdenum purchase of the 100% equity interest in FMDRC held by Freeport (also known as the FBM 56% interest) was completed on November 17, 2016. Just before the Spring Festival, Luoyang Molybdenum announced on January 23, 2017 that the company will cooperate with BHR Newwood Investment Management Limited (BHR) to obtain a 24% equity interest in TFM after BHR indirectly holds a 24% stake in TFM through equity purchase. Purchase right. The final transfer of TFM rights was successful. At this point, Luoyang Molybdenum has obtained a total of 80% of TFM, and the remaining 20% ​​of TFM is controlled by Congo (Gold). Luoyang Molybdenum further strengthened its control over the Tenke copper-cobalt mine, thereby enhancing its world voice in the field of copper and cobalt.
Broker researcher's multiple research reports push the cobalt concept stocks
Cobalt prices have risen and cobalt concept stocks have followed suit. This phenomenon is not new in the commodity market. In recent years, the linkage effect between commodities and the stock market is very obvious. For example, the “coal dance†in the stock and futures markets reflects the logic of the relationship between the two markets.
So, back to the original question, why did the cobalt price rise?
In October 2016, a large-scale brokerage company based in Beijing released a detailed research report that in the first half of 2016, although some large-scale cobalt mine production saw a significant increase, according to tracking, the cobalt supply as a whole showed a tightening. situation. According to the report, under the assumption that China will produce about 550,000 new energy vehicles in 2016 and about 700,000 vehicles in 2017, global cobalt supply and demand will exceed 2,250 tons in 2016, but by 2017, the global cobalt market will be short of 1,000. Ton. Even in 2016, the production and sales volume of new energy vehicles was as low as 400,000 units, and the production and sales volume in 2017 was as low as 510,000 units. The global cobalt market will still have a shortage of about 100 tons.
In other words, the shortage of cobalt may lead to an increase in cobalt prices. The above research report also pointed out that the market is too worried about the prospects of the new energy auto industry. "Compared with the market generally waiting for the policy to fall, it is firmly believed that the supply and demand of cobalt will be in short supply in 2017. It is recommended to actively focus on cobalt-related companies (including Huayou Cobalt, China). Color shares (8.740, -0.09, -1.02%), Luoyang Molybdenum and GEM, etc.).
The above-mentioned brokerages released a research report in December 2016, saying that even if the political situation in the Congo is stabilized, there will be a supply and demand gap of more than 2,000 tons in 2017, which is the first time in recent years, and will be expanded year by year, optimistic about the long-term rise in cobalt prices. Trends do not rule out the possibility of skyrocketing with the participation of social funds.
The China Securities Journal reporter found that since October 2016, the broker has published a total of six research reports on the cobalt industry. The title of the research report on February 17 strongly recommended Huayou Cobalt and Luoyang Molybdenum. Although the metal cobalt has not been highly concerned, but after 2017, many brokers have also released research reports on the cobalt industry, and pushed the cobalt concept stocks.
Questioning sound: fried cobalt or fried cobalt concept stocks
On February 27th, an article entitled "The Back of Cobalt Prices, Ge Weidong and Other 6,000 Tons of Cobalt Cobalt" spread on the Internet, and the public's attention was focused on this small metal.
According to rumors, according to the Financial Times, six funds including Shanghai Chaos Investment in the business coverage of commodity futures and the Swiss private equity firm Pala Investments, which focuses on the mining industry, have bought about 6,000 tons of cobalt last year. , equivalent to 17% of global production last year, worth about 280 million US dollars.
To this end, China Securities Journal reporter contacted Chaos Investment in a timely manner. Although he repeatedly urged the inquiry, he did not receive a reply and confirmation. However, an insider of Chaos Investment told reporters that chaotic investment did not have samarium-cobalt behavior. The rumors in the market were false and completely nothing.
China Securities Journal reporter based on rumors, 280 million US dollars to buy 6,000 tons of cobalt, the average price per ton more than 46,000 US dollars, but the highest price of LME cobalt spot last year was only 32,235 US dollars per ton. This shows that there is an exaggerated or false component of the data in the rumor.
Whether the rumors are true or not, the judgments and opinions of the industry are different. Some of the commodity futures market sources interviewed by the reporter said that although all future cobalt trading contracts (LME cobalt) in London futures trading, the trading volume is very small. If the goods are sold through spot, it may be difficult to withdraw in the future.
However, some market participants have questioned that some institutions or investors may use the speculation of "cobalt price" to achieve the purpose of speculating the concept stocks for profit. "The stock price is much higher than the spot price."
Jingchuan, a futures expert engaged in non-ferrous metal research for more than 20 years, told China Securities Journal that the linkage between commodity and stock market is strong. People will study the market according to the logic of industrial chain. The rise in commodity prices will increase the profit of related companies. To promote the rise of the value of listed companies, from this logic, if some small metals are manipulated, it is not excluded that someone is "telling stories."
Abstract Yesterday, the market rumors that the price of metallic cobalt in the Shanghai futures 佬 Ge Weidong 肆囤 肆囤 cobalt, metal rose more than 125% in the past year. On the occasion of the soaring cobalt price, Huayou Cobalt, Luoyang Molybdenum, GEM and other concept stocks also rose sharply. Among them, Huayou Cobalt has nearly tripled in the past year...
Yesterday, the market rumors, Shanghai futures giant Ge Weidong big cobalt, the price of metallic cobalt rose more than 125% in the past year. At the time of the soaring cobalt price, the concept stocks of Huayou Cobalt, Luoyang Molybdenum and GEM have also risen sharply. Among them, Huayou Cobalt has nearly tripled in the past year.