After two or three years of sale of second-hand new energy vehicles, 70% of the price of new energy vehicles is still less than 10%.
Why are there no second-hand new energy vehicles?
The prosperity of the used car market is closely related to the number of cars. At present, although the sales growth of new energy vehicles in China is rapid, the amount of possession is still too small, and it is difficult to form a climate. It is still unable to support a new category. The data shows that the number of new energy vehicles sold in China last year was about 500,000 units, and the cumulative sales volume was close to 1 million units, which is still too small compared to the nearly 200 million units of gasoline vehicles in the country.
After two or three years of new energy vehicles, the discount rate is as high as 70%. Even so, it is far less popular in the market than gasoline vehicles. At present, in the used car market, the proportion of new energy vehicles that can be traded within one month after the shelves are usually less than 10%, and at least 40% of used gasoline vehicles can be traded in the current month. This is the data obtained by Beijing Youth Daily when interviewing the used car market.
However, the scene in the new car market is completely different. In recent years, with the promotion of new energy vehicles by local governments, more and more people are trying to choose new energy vehicles as a travel tool. Especially in cities like Beijing, buying new energy vehicles can not only enjoy double subsidies from local governments and auto manufacturers, but also can wait for a faster purchase of cars across a long shake. This year, Beijing's quota for new energy vehicles is 60,000 units, of which 51,000 are corresponding to ordinary consumers, and are issued according to the principle of “direct delivery, first come first servedâ€. According to the data released by the first phase of Beijing Municipality, the personal new energy vehicle indicators have been fully configured as of April 26 this year. The one-year indicator has been used up in just over three months, which shows the popularity of new energy vehicles.
“Beijing is a city where the promotion of new energy vehicles in the country is strong. Those new energy vehicles that have entered the Beijing catalogue usually account for 50% or 60% of the national sales in Beijing. The proportion of big brands like BYD and Beiqi New Energy is higher. A new energy vehicle professional told Beiqing Daily that with the rise of new energy vehicles in first-tier cities, demand in second- and third-tier cities is now heating up.
on site
A maximum of one or two people in a day to inquire about new energy vehicles
The new energy vehicles that are highly sought after in the first-class new car market have become unspeakable in the second-class old car market. Beiqing Daily learned from many used car dealers in Beijing that the number of second-hand new energy vehicles in the auto market is very small, the proportion is usually only in single digits, and the sales situation is not optimistic. Not only is the number small, the transactions of second-hand new energy vehicles are also significantly colder. According to a staff member of the Huaxiang Auto Trading Market, the number of second-hand new energy vehicles operated here is extremely small, and the car dealers are not active. Even some car dealers who have tried to use second-hand new energy vehicles have been working for a while. The main reason for exit is that there are few customers. Many car dealers here said that ten of the people who bought used cars couldn’t catch up with one to ask about new energy vehicles. Usually one or two people inquired at a time. “The main reason is that the speciality of the new energy vehicles determines the demand for used cars. Quite a minority."
Beiqing Daily saw that the second-hand new energy vehicles currently on sale in the used car market have basically been opened for two or three years, mainly such brands as BYD and BAIC. The price of these cars is about 70,000 yuan, which is about 50% discount to the actual purchase price. If you calculate the purchase subsidy of about 50% at the beginning, you can restore the original sales price of 200,000 yuan. The discount rate of second-hand new energy vehicles in the year is around 70%, far higher than the discount rate of gasoline vehicles of the same age and price. Beiqing Daily learned from a second-hand car dealer that the current discount rate for gasoline vehicles is usually 15% in the year, 10% in the second year, and 7% to 8% in the third year. The total is only 30 in three years. Around %, the hedge ratio is significantly higher than that of new energy vehicles. This is very reluctant for the car dealers who sell second-hand new energy vehicles. The discount rate is too high, resulting in low profits, and even falling in the hands.
In the domestic ** used car platform melon seeds used to sell online, although completely adopting a personal-to-personal trading model, avoiding the manipulation of second-hand car dealers due to interests, but Beiqing Daily registered on the platform found that the second-hand new energy vehicles here The amount of online is also very small. Among the more than 100,000 used car information here, there are only about 1,000 new energy vehicles, accounting for only 1%. Moreover, these more than 1,000 new energy vehicles also include hybrid electric vehicles, and the number of pure electric vehicles is even smaller.
Similarly, the sales of new energy vehicles on the used cars of melon seeds are not optimistic - the proportion of transactions in the month after the gasoline trucks are on the shelves is extremely high, and most of them can be sold within one or two months; but second-hand new energy vehicles The heat is obviously insufficient, and the proportion that can usually be sold in the month is less than 10%. The big data system of melon seeds used cars clearly shows the difference between gasoline vehicles and new energy vehicles in the secondary market.
Follow up
Second-hand new energy vehicle price assessment "water too deep"
Beiqing Daily learned in the interview that many people in the industry allege that the second-hand new energy vehicle industry is “water too deepâ€. The key is that the vehicle's residual value assessment is also a big problem, not only for people who buy a car. Feeling a headache, even the car dealers who do the used car business all the year round often have to look away.
An industry insider told Beiqing Daily that the current price assessment of second-hand gasoline vehicles in the industry has been relatively mature. Most car dealers usually specialize in several brands or even several models, and they have skillfully formed their own evaluation system. Often, the vehicle's residual value can be quickly evaluated and the price given by the basic conditions of a car's model, age, and condition. "As long as there is no intention to hang people, the basic evaluation prices are almost the same, the most difference is the question of whether the difference between the car dealers wants to make more or less!" The person told the Beiqing Daily that the valuation of used gasoline vehicles in the circle The system has been relatively transparent, and like the professional platform, it has formed a perfect price evaluation system for second-hand gasoline vehicles. For example, the used car of the melon seeds has even developed a system for automatically evaluating the price through big data, and the last remaining person of the car dealer is also a subjective factor. get rid.
Although the valuation system for gasoline vehicles is relatively mature, the residual value assessment of second-hand new energy vehicles is still a big problem for all parties. "On the one hand, there is less experience, and there is not enough experience for the car conditions after long-term use." Wang Xiaoyu, vice president of the second-hand car direct sales network, told Beiqing Daily that in order to meet the peak of the upcoming second-hand new energy vehicles, they Last year, new energy vehicles were listed from existing big data systems for continuous monitoring, but he admits that the analysis of big data systems requires a sufficient number of samples to support, and only the analysis statistics of thousands of vehicles are not enough. Accurate analysis results like a gasoline car.
Focus
Battery performance is difficult to assess plagued second-hand new energy vehicles
"The current gasoline engine life is basically more than 20 years, so for most used cars, this is not the focus of evaluation; for new energy vehicles, how long it will take to buy back the battery, will it not? The sudden acceleration of the attenuation affects the normal use, it has become a big problem!†Beiqing Daily interviewed a number of used car dealers, the other said that the current judgment on battery performance has no experience. This is the core issue in the price assessment of second-hand new energy vehicles. How much a second-hand new energy car can be worth, and how long the battery can be used normally is the most important factor.
It is understood that although many new energy auto companies promise consumers their battery life and quality assurance can reach 10 years, but considering the comprehensive factors such as the use of the environment, the current industry consensus is that the average life of the power battery is 5 years, and Judging from the use value of used cars, the general view of the normal service life of batteries in new energy vehicles in the industry is 3 years.
"The valuation of second-hand new energy vehicles is not based on the age and mileage." Wang Xiaoyu said that the different environment of the vehicle has a great impact on the battery life of the future battery. If the same vehicle is used in the northeast for a long time. Or, in the warm south, the performance of the battery after the same age is quite different, and it is difficult to judge. “The only thing that can be done now is to track as much as possible the usage data of some used new energy vehicles and track the performance of the future. The final big data can provide experience for future evaluations, such as which brand. How many kilometers or more of the battery of the car begins to accelerate and so on."
In fact, many car dealers have told the Beiqing Daily that many of the customers who come to consult and sell cars are now in the car for almost 3 years. They are already motivated to continue to drive the battery, so they will consult. How to get the old car.
It is precisely because of this, some people in the industry also suggest that consumers who intend to buy second-hand new energy vehicles must consult professional institutions to conduct relevant tests on vehicles before buying a car, especially paying attention to the condition of the battery, but not just buying a second-hand gasoline car. Focus on mileage and years. Conditional car buyers should have a certain understanding of the previous car owners' usage and driving habits, which is of great value for judging the battery life of the future. In addition, he specially reminded consumers that no matter whether they buy new or second-hand new energy vehicles, they must have a full understanding of the way they use and maintain them in the future. Only they think they can adapt to buy again, avoiding it after a period of time Give up, after all, the high discount rate of new energy vehicles will bring a lot of losses to users.
analysis
The secondary market for new energy vehicles has not yet formed
"Objectively, the second-hand new energy vehicles on the market are not really entering the re-circulating car. This is obviously different from the gasoline car." A second-hand car dealer told Beiqing Daily that the second-hand new energy vehicle is currently ready to be used. They have only been open for a year or two. Many car owners are considering various plans to update their cars before they intend to sell them. Some car owners are still unwilling to give up on new energy vehicles after a certain period of time.
The car dealer said that he had several customers who wanted to take their own good new energy vehicles because the family finally shook a petrol car. They often felt that the gasoline car was more comfortable to drive. From this perspective, the second-hand new energy vehicles currently on the market are still not the result of real replacement.
In this regard, Wang Xiaoyu also said that the booming of the used car market is closely related to the car ownership. At present, although the sales growth of new energy vehicles in China is rapid, the amount of possession is still too small, and it is difficult to form a climate. New category. The data shows that the number of new energy vehicles sold in China last year was about 500,000 units, and the cumulative sales volume was close to 1 million units, which is still too small compared to the nearly 200 million units of gasoline vehicles in the country. In addition, he said that China's new energy vehicles have only developed in the past two or three years, and most of the cars are in the stage of two or three years of use, far from the peak of second-hand transactions.
Up to now, China's new energy vehicle ownership has reached 1 million units. According to relevant plans, by 2020, the cumulative production and sales volume of new energy vehicles in China will reach 5 million units. According to the industry, when the quantity is between 5 million and 10 million, the used car market will really enter a booming period. This means that in the next three or four years, China's second-hand new energy vehicle market will really start, so how to open up this new market is also the homework of the used car dealers in the next few years.
attention
New energy vehicle waste battery treatment needs to be standardized
On the one hand, the problem of battery life has led to the failure to sell second-hand new energy vehicles and sell them at a premium. At the same time, it has also raised concerns about how to deal with the waste batteries of new energy vehicles. According to the plan, China's cumulative production and sales of new energy vehicles will reach 5 million units by 2020. According to the prediction of China Automotive Technology and Research Center, the cumulative scrap of China's automobile power batteries will reach 120,000 to 170,000 tons by then. However, if these batteries are not recycled and treated in a standardized manner, the waste lithium battery will generate waste gas, waste liquid and waste residue during the dismantling process, which will cause environmental pollution, and form a new energy vehicle that is “environmentally friendly when driving and more polluted after being scrappedâ€. Dilemma.
It is understood that, as early as April 2015, the Ministry of Finance and other four ministries and commissions jointly issued the "Notice on the Financial Support Policy for the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles in 2016-2020" and proposed that automobile manufacturers and power battery manufacturers should Take the responsibility of recycling the power battery. But in fact, last year, China’s cumulative production of power batteries was about 25.25 billion watt-hours, and the total amount of actual dismantling and recycling was less than 10,000 tons. Nearly 84% of the scrapped batteries were still stuck in the hands of car companies. In addition to the processing technology itself, the power battery of the new energy vehicle is relatively large in volume and high in energy density. It is also dangerous in the recycling process. For example, the state of the used battery may be unstable due to the state of the used battery, and there may be damage or liquid leakage. In the case of non-encapsulation and safe handling, it is likely to cause a short circuit, fire or even explosion.
According to the manufacturer of the recovered lithium iron phosphate battery, the cost of standardizing the recycling of 1 ton of waste lithium iron phosphate battery is 8540 yuan, and the value of recycled materials obtained from it is about 8110 yuan, and the loss per ton is 430 yuan. Profitability is possible, so a large number of small workshops that do not have the technical and environmental strength are becoming the main force for the recycling of used batteries. Therefore, the entire "green industry chain" of new energy vehicles needs to be improved, so that green runs through the industry from beginning to end.