Brief Analysis of the Status Quo and Future Development Trend of Diamond Wire Saw Industry in 2018

After a few years of development, China's diamond wire saw industry has occupied a dominant position in the market. After the start-up period, growth period, and outbreak period, under the influence of the 531 PV New Deal this year, it is now entering a shock period. Some people believe that 2018 will be the last adult ceremony of the photovoltaic industry. This sentence also applies to the diamond wire saw industry. After this round of industrial baptism, it will enter maturity.

Industry status

1 industrial environment

Diamond wire saws are mainly used in the fields of photovoltaics, sapphire and magnetic materials. According to relevant statistics, more than 95% of domestic diamond wire saws are used in the photovoltaic industry.

According to the China Photovoltaic Association, China's wafer production in the first half of 2018 exceeded 50GW, an increase of about 39%. In 2017, the silicon wafer end of the photovoltaic industry was included in the production of polycrystalline silicon wafers of 38 wafer companies counted by the Photovoltaic Association. The diamond wire cut ratio accounted for only 37.5%. In the first half of 2018, with the large-scale replacement of cutting equipment, this proportion has been More than 90%; single crystal silicon diamond wire saw cutting ratio has already reached 100%. Therefore, from the perspective of market possession, the diamond wire saw almost completely controls the gate of the photovoltaic wafer cutting market, which has undoubtedly played a great supporting role in the development of the diamond wire saw industry.

The biggest variable in the PV industry in the first half of the year was the 531 New Deal. With the implementation of the New Deal, the PV market demand fell sharply. After the 531 New Deal, the relevant institutions drastically lowered the installed capacity of domestic PV, with a drop of more than 30%. The operating status of the wafer companies also illustrates this point. According to the China Photovoltaic Association, in the first half of the year, some polysilicon enterprises were subject to equipment, funds and other factors, and they have stopped production or bankruptcy. There has been an acceleration trend since June; the price of silicon wafers continues to decline. By July, monocrystalline silicon fell to 3.15 yuan per piece, and polysilicon fell to 2.4-2.5 yuan per piece. The development of the photovoltaic industry has once again entered the winter break period.

Although the 531 New Deal is like a cold cold water splashing into the hot photovoltaic industry, the state has never given up its support for the photovoltaic industry at the policy level. First, the National Energy Administration stated in early June: "Photovoltaics is the main force in the future energy transformation, and the determination of the Energy Bureau to develop China's PV industry has not wavered." Then, since July, the state and local governments have issued a total of 27 policies to actively respond to the PV market after the 531 New Deal. At the national level, policies to promote PV participation in market-based transactions and encourage local governments to actively explore renewable energy compulsory quotas and green card trading systems have been introduced; in local, Hebei, Guangdong, Jiangsu, Jiangxi, Hunan, Qinghai, Sichuan and other provinces Preferential policies for poverty alleviation, photovoltaic subsidies, photovoltaic front-runners, photovoltaic power plants, and photovoltaic land use are frequent.

2 market demand price double decline

Domestic diamond wire saw enterprises mainly include Yangling Meichang, Muller New Materials, Sanchao New Materials, Dongni Electronics, Yicheng Xinneng, Stellar Technology, Ruiqi New Materials, and Yamada Milling. In recent years, the diamond wire saw has been trending in thin wire. At present, the wire diameter of the mainstream diamond wire (electroplated diamond wire) has been reduced to 65 μm (the single crystal silicon is more than 60 μm wire, it is reported that Yang Ling Mei Chang has developed a 50 μm wire).

The watershed of diamond wire saws in this year's market demand and price is the 531 PV New Deal. After the New Deal, the demand and price of the diamond wire saw market declined to varying degrees. Take Yang Ling Mei Chang, a leading manufacturer of diamond wire saws, as an example. Before the PV New Deal, its monthly sales exceeded 2 million+KM mark in April this year. The monthly sales after the New Deal remained at more than 1 million KM. The overall demand for the diamond wire saw market Shrinking. For diamond wire saw enterprises, the decline in sales is unpredictable, and the decline in wire saw prices is even more worrying. Take the 65 line as an example. Before and after the 531 New Deal, the price dropped from 0.17 yuan/meter to 0.12. ~0.125 yuan / m, profits fell by about 30%. Of course, in this environment, there is good news for Yang Ling Mei Chang. The market share of the company's products has increased against the trend, from about 50% to about 60%.

development trend

1 application area diversified layout

At present, more than 95% of the domestic diamond wire saws are in the photovoltaic industry. In fact, as early as the beginning of the diamond wire saw market in 2016 and 2017, some industry insiders have expressed concern about the sharp expansion of the wire saw production capacity only for the photovoltaic industry. The industrial shock of this round, the diversified layout of diamond wire saws in the industry is increasingly louder.

As a new cutting technology applied in the field of hard and brittle materials, diamond wire saw is currently rapidly replacing traditional cutting technology. In addition to photovoltaic wafers, it is also used in LED sapphire, magnetic materials, ceramic materials and other fields, specifically in consumer electronics, LED semiconductor lighting, new energy vehicles and other industries. Compared with the previous cutting technology, the diamond wire saw cutting adopts multi-line cutting technology, which has the characteristics of strong cutting ability, high efficiency, small cutting loss, high precision, energy saving and environmental protection. In fact, wire saws have been used in some markets outside the photovoltaic industry, but the market share is small, and some wire saw companies are making unremitting efforts in areas with more market potential. For example, Yang Ling Mei Chang maintains the leading position in photovoltaic thin lines. At the same time, the development of thick lines for stone cutting is also progressing steadily.

Diversified layout will be the major trend of diamond wire saw enterprise transformation, which not only brings more profit growth points to enterprises, but also can avoid market fluctuations focused on a certain industry to a certain extent, which is beneficial to enterprises to dilute risks. Of course, “diversification” sounds simple and straightforward. However, it is not easy to operate. Diversification has high requirements for enterprises. It requires enterprises to have strategic planning, talent reserve, capital investment and project accumulation.

2 photovoltaic market potential is still huge

From the perspective of future development trends, the photovoltaic industry is still the mainstream material in 5-10 years, and the application of diamond wire in the photovoltaic market will still dominate. As long as this fact does not change within a certain period of time, the photovoltaic market is still the most important. weight.

Domestic market

According to the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to June 2018, new energy generation (nuclear power, wind power, solar power) accounted for 10.8% of all power generation, an increase of 1.0 percentage points over the same period last year. According to statistics, at present, domestic solar power generation accounts for about 1.5% of the national power generation. China's "Energy Development Strategic Action Plan (2014-2020)" regards the development of clean low-carbon energy as the main direction of adjusting energy structure. The strategic plan pointed out that by 2020, non-fossil energy will account for 15% of primary energy consumption, and the energy structure will be transformed into efficient, clean and low-carbon. According to the "Revolutionary Strategy for Energy Production and Consumption (2016-2030)", by 2030, non-fossil energy generation accounts for 50% of all power generation. According to the current proportion and speed of new installed capacity, the solar photovoltaic power generation market will grow by about 10 times by 2030. In the long run, the diamond wire saw industry has a huge market space.

There are several very important keywords in the domestic PV industry, which are crucial for the future development of the photovoltaic industry and the diamond wire saw industry, including distributed photovoltaics, front-runners, and subsidies for peace and price. Among them, the parity of the Internet is the core logic of the development of the photovoltaic industry, and photovoltaic power generation can only be market-oriented if it is evaluated online. The industry agrees that the real realization of affordable Internet access (user side parity online), 2020 is a time node. Wire saw practitioners should pay more attention to and learn more about relevant policy information.

international market

According to China Customs data, the export volume of photovoltaic products showed an increasing trend in the first quarter, and the export volume increased by 16.8% year-on-year. It is expected that the export of photovoltaic industry will continue to rise in 2018. According to the China Photovoltaic Association, the export market for photovoltaic products continued to decline in the first five months of this year. In the past, India and Japan accounted for more than 60% of the export market share, while in the first half of this year, the proportion fell to 33%, with Australia, Mexico, and Brazil. The flowering situation of the emerging markets dominated by the United Arab Emirates and other countries continues to expand. As the economics of photovoltaic power generation projects continue to increase, more and more countries and regions will attach importance to the development of photovoltaic power generation. Specifically, the European market will enter a recovery phase. It is expected that the new installed capacity will exceed 11GW in 2018; India's new PV installation in the first quarter of 2018 will reach 3.3GW, which is the first time since the single quarter that more than 3GW is installed. The construction plan will be as high as 11GW; 2017 is regarded as the main turning point in the development of the Australian PV market. Australia's latest PV report shows that by the end of 2017, the cumulative installed capacity of photovoltaics in Australia exceeded 7.2GW, accounting for 13% of the national electricity generation, accounting for total energy. 3.9% of demand is much higher than the global average. According to the Australian Photovoltaic Association data, the installed capacity of photovoltaics in Australia may exceed 3.5GW in 2018, which is three times the new installed capacity of photovoltaics in 2017; the region is rich in light resources, according to the global solar market attractiveness index, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain The bidding for photovoltaic capacity in Jordan, Oman and the United Arab Emirates will exceed 8GW in 2018; photovoltaic power generation in most countries in Latin America is basically at a market level, financing is convenient, and demand in Chile, Mexico, Brazil and other countries is growing rapidly.

In the long-term trend, in the 12 years from 2018 to 2030, it is estimated that the annual global installed capacity will still exceed 100GW on average. From a global perspective, photovoltaic power generation costs are declining and have been lower than conventional energy sources in many countries and regions. It is expected that the global market will remain stable or even growing.

Points to note:

1, improve quality and reduce costs

Nowadays, the diamond wire saw industry has entered the shock period along with the photovoltaic industry, and the operating rate is generally low. But on the other hand, this provides a good opportunity for the wire saw enterprise to work hard. After the rapid expansion of the production capacity during the outbreak period, there is now enough time and manpower to pass product innovation in product quality, efficiency, research and development, etc. Each link achieves an increase in the efficiency of all-factor production. During this period, PV companies have returned the focus of technology research and development strategy to “reducing cost and increasing efficiency”. The wafer cutting process has become the starting point of photovoltaic enterprises. In the future, silicon wafer thinning, diamond wire saw thinning and slicer Performance improvement will become a troika to promote the development of the wafer industry. At the same time, the photovoltaic industry's parity online cycle is getting closer, and downstream leading companies need to “race” high-quality diamond wire suppliers to reduce costs.

Under the trend of thinning of diamond wire saw, how to improve the strength of bus bar, how to improve the performance of diamond wire saw production equipment, how to solve the phenomenon of agglomeration in micro-powder coating technology has become an important part of diamond wire saw enterprise production and research and development content.

For diamond micro-powder companies, the most desired for wire saw enterprises is that micro-powder companies can provide diamond micro-powders that meet the quality requirements, with crystal control in place and consistent quality. The micro-powder enterprises and the wire-saw enterprises have formed an inseparable relationship of destiny and community, and they are all devastated.

2. Focus on environmental protection

Environmental protection is one of the key words of China's industrial development. Environmental protection inspectors are in full swing in all walks of life. In recent years, the environmental protection situation faced by enterprises has become more and more severe from “investigating enterprises” to “supervising government”. For diamond wire saw enterprises, it is also necessary to attach great importance to corporate environmental protection work. In June of this year, Muller New Materials was found to have a fine of 900,000 yuan for environmental violations, which sounded the alarm for the industry.

It’s only possible to see the day when the cloud is set. Although the diamond wire saw industry is facing some difficulties and experienced a storm, we firmly believe that the sun is always after the storm; we also always believe that the diamond wire saw people have the kind of wind and rain is the normal state, the wind and rain are the mentality, the wind and rain are The state of the spirit!

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