October electricity consumption growth rate hit a new low in the year

On January 14, the National Energy Administration data showed that the total electricity consumption in the whole society was 513 billion kWh in October, an increase of 5.0% year-on-year, and a decrease of 2.2 percentage points from September, setting a new low for the year. The industry believes that this is related to the weakening of demand and the obvious cooling of industrial production under environmental protection and limited production. It is expected that the growth rate of power demand in the fourth quarter will fall back from the third quarter. The annual electricity consumption of the whole society will increase by about 6.5%. More than the 2016 growth level.

It is understood that in the first two months of this year, the electricity consumption of the whole society increased by 6.3% year-on-year and 7.9% year-on-year in March. However, since April, the growth rate of electricity consumption has gradually declined. In May, it increased by 5.1% year-on-year, and in June it increased sharply. 1.4 percentage points, up 6.5% year-on-year, and July was the highest monthly electricity growth in 46 months since September 2013. However, the growth rate of electricity consumption in August fell again, up 6.4% year-on-year, and rose slightly to 7.2% in September.

The decline in electricity consumption in October is not unrelated to the short-term economy, especially the fluctuations in industrial operations. In terms of industries, compared with September, the electricity consumption of the primary industry and the tertiary industry increased, but the growth rate of electricity consumption in the secondary industry and the electricity consumption of urban and rural residents fell by 2.1 percentage points and 3 percentage points respectively. In particular, the growth rate of electricity used in the secondary industry is only 3%.

According to data just released by the National Bureau of Statistics, the value-added of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.2% year-on-year in October, which was less than the market expectation of 6.3%, which was also lower than the value of 6.6% before September. According to a report issued by the China National Gold Research Group, the environmentally limited production in October has a greater impact on industrial production. “2+26” urban environmental protection production continued to exert strength. Coke began to implement peak production from October 1 and extended the coke time to more than 36 hours, equivalent to 1/3 of the limit. In terms of steel, some northern cities will limit The production time is advanced, Shijiazhuang, Handan, Anyang, etc. will limit the production time to October, and the steel town of Tangshan will also extend the production time to October 12, and launch emergency emission reduction measures several times, and the sintering machine will limit production by 50%.

According to the research report of the State Grid Energy Research Institute, China's economy will continue to operate smoothly in the fourth quarter, mainly due to the air pollution control in the heating season in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and the gradual increase in the electricity base last year. Something has fallen back. It is estimated that the national electricity consumption growth rate will be around 5% in the fourth quarter, and the national electricity consumption growth rate will be around 6.5% in 2017.

The China Electricity Council believes that the whole society's electricity consumption will maintain steady growth in the fourth quarter. The annual total electricity consumption of the whole society will increase by about 6.5% year-on-year, exceeding the growth level in 2016. Among them, the temperature factor in the third quarter is rising, and the annual growth rate is close to 1. Percentage points.