In the second half of phosphate fertilizer supply or demand tight or loose?

First, the domestic supply of fertilizers in the fall is sufficient for diammonium. As of the end of May, diammonium enterprises have a stock of 1.31 million tons. Under normal circumstances, the output from June to October is about 5.75 million tons (Dagukou, Yihua, Xingfa, and Fujian in the second half of the year). The large-scale diammonium units such as Fufu are gradually put into production. It is estimated that 3 million tons will be exported (2.77 million tons will be exported from June to September last year), and the market supply in the autumn will exceed 4 million tons. The demand will be 3 million tons. The supply of domestic phosphate fertilizer is sufficient in autumn.

Second, the amount of phosphate fertilizer exports will decline sharply According to the China Phosphate Fertilizer Industry Association's data verified by key enterprises, in July the company has signed export orders 2.3 million -2.6 million tons, far below the level of 4.02 million tons last year. The export orders of small-scale phosphorus fertilizers fell sharply. The export orders for heavy calcium and two-element fertilizers were lower than last year, and the total exports of phosphate fertilizers decreased significantly. Last year, India imported 6.9 million tons, and it is expected that this year's demand will not be lower than last year. According to statistics, at the end of July this year, India's orders have reached 4.87 million-561 million tons. The signing of orders in the same period this year was actually higher than last year. It is estimated that it is difficult to obtain large orders in the later period. The pressure on Chinese companies in the international market has increased significantly.

Based on this trend, diammonium will export about 3 million tons this year, which will be 1 million tons less than last year. It is expected that the total amount of phosphorus fertilizer exports will be about 2.2 million-2.5 million tons this year. Due to the low export prices, the export of phosphate fertilizer will not be profitable.

Third, the annual output is expected to be based on domestic and international market analysis, the domestic market is stable, there will be no significant growth in demand; international market prices are running low, China's low-tariff export of phosphorus and compound fertilizer has a short period, the export volume can not guarantee the stable operation of large devices. It is estimated that the total output of phosphate fertilizer will be about 17 million tons in 2012, an increase of about 3.5% year-on-year. The net export volume is expected to be about 2 million tons (the net export last year will be 3.72 million tons), and the domestic supply will reach 15 million tons, far exceeding the agricultural production in China. Demand for phosphate fertilizers.

Difficulties in the phosphate fertilizer industry in the second half of the year intensified in the main raw materials for phosphate fertilizer production**, phosphate rock, and synthetic ammonia, the price of phosphate rock is difficult to significantly adjust, and the price of synthetic ammonia depends on coal prices. Although the coal price in the southwest has declined, the start of synthetic ammonia is not normal. The price is the highest in the country. Phosphate fertilizer production depends on the price of **, but from the data, the international ** supply is tightly balanced in the past two years, ** prices are also unlikely to drop sharply, and the production cost of phosphorus compound fertilizer is still high.

As new plant capacity was released this year, phosphate fertilizer output continued to grow. The export volume decreased, and domestic phosphate fertilizer resources exceeded domestic demand by 2 million tons. Therefore, the contradiction between supply and demand will be more prominent in the second half of the year. Especially after the end of autumn fertilizer use, the downward pressure on diammonium prices will increase and companies will run at a loss.