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On April 4th, domestic methanol prices saw an upward trend, while CFR Southeast Asia declined slightly. Prices in Shanxi, Jiangsu, and Guangdong increased by 30 yuan/ton, 10 yuan/ton, and 50 yuan/ton respectively. On the international front, CFR South East Asia dropped by $10/ton, while CFR China rose by $15/ton, creating a spread of $80/ton.
Methanol prices surged sharply on the same day. The May contract closed up 0.37% at 2,694, while the September contract gained 1.48% to close at 2,804. Short-term resistance levels are now seen around 2,790 and 2,840, with traders closely watching these key points for potential corrections or further gains.
Internationally, methanol quotations have returned to historical levels and are showing signs of stabilization. The pressure from international prices on domestic coastal markets is gradually easing. Domestic production facilities are slowly ramping up, and supply is beginning to recover, but short-term supply remains tight.
In Southeast Asia, methanol prices continue to decline, with pessimistic forecasts suggesting a potential drop of $30/ton. Recently, international methanol has been concentrated in ports, which has put downward pressure on southern Chinese port prices, adding to the bearish sentiment in the region.
Recommendations: For investors, there are no clear long-term opportunities at this time. It’s advisable to focus on short-term profit-taking, especially near key resistance levels. A long spread trade between May and September contracts could be considered as a tactical move.
Overall, the market remains volatile, and careful monitoring of both domestic and international factors is essential for making informed trading decisions.