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The domestic spot steel market continues to show weakness, with insufficient confidence among market participants. Currently, the price of construction steel has approached cost levels, and the willingness of downstream merchants to cut prices may be less aggressive than in previous periods. A new round of ex-factory price cuts by leading construction steel producers has triggered a "plate-like" decline, with more construction sites expected to resume operations as temperatures rise, potentially boosting demand. However, according to the latest market report from relevant agencies, the social inventory of major domestic steel products has been rising for several weeks, reaching a new high in recent years. Despite this, demand recovery remains limited, and optimism about the steel industry's outlook is still not justified.
In the construction steel market, prices have dropped significantly. Cities such as Hefei, Nanchang, and Changsha have seen price declines of between 110 and 190 yuan per ton. After the Lantern Festival, many merchants reported sluggish market conditions, with little improvement in turnover. The rising social inventory has created psychological pressure on traders. In the plate market, weakness persists, with prices continuing to fall. Changsha, Tianjin, Shijiazhuang, and Xi’an experienced more pronounced drops, with losses around 80 yuan per ton. Overall market activity remains weak, and sentiment is pessimistic. Even with falling prices, downstream buyers have shown little interest in purchasing. The price of hot-rolled coils has declined sharply, but the rate of decline has started to slow down. Market participants believe that terminal demand still lacks sufficient support. Additionally, inventory levels surged during the Spring Festival, and some businesses with heavy stock and tight cash flow have begun to sell off at lower prices.
During the second trading week after the Spring Festival, spot market confidence was negatively impacted by the delayed release of terminal demand, high steel mill output, and rapid increases in social inventories. Prices of major steel products fell across the board, with only a slight slowdown observed by the weekend. In mid-February, the average daily crude steel output in the country exceeded 2 million tons for the first time since October last year. This situation highlights two key pressures: rising steel production and inventory levels, alongside limited demand from downstream sectors. Even with a recovering macro economy, the steel industry’s overall performance remains constrained by overcapacity. As a result, the steel market is likely to remain in a phase of weak consolidation for the foreseeable future.