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Recent industry data reveals that the average thermal coal price in the Bohai Rim 5500 kcal market closed at RMB 638 per ton for the week ending December 11, 2012, marking a slight increase from the previous report. However, during the period from December 28 to December 4, the price dropped by 2 yuan per ton, signaling continued weakness in the market.
According to analyst Xinyu Xin from the business community, the Bohai Sea coal market remains in a weak phase. With the current sluggish demand, many coal producers are opting for lower pricing strategies to retain customers. Additionally, the influx of low-cost imported coal is intensifying competition, putting pressure on domestic coal prices. Analysts remain cautious about the outlook, as both domestic and international factors are contributing to a challenging environment.
The primary cause behind the recent decline in thermal coal prices is weak demand, despite an improving domestic economic climate and increased consumption of electricity and energy resources. However, the oversupply in the coal market continues to push prices downward, with no immediate signs of improvement in the overall market conditions.
As of November 30, key power plants across the country held 88.8 million tons of coal, enough for 24 days of operations—still at an extremely high level. Meanwhile, coal stockpiles at the four major ports around the Bohai Sea have risen for seven consecutive weeks. By December 10, the total coal inventory at these ports reached 17.189 million tons, up by 819,000 tons from the previous week, reflecting a 5% increase.
Although international coal prices have seen a temporary rise, this has provided some support to domestic coal prices. However, imported coal remains generally cheaper than domestically traded coal. Furthermore, the year-end peak in coal imports is expected to further dampen the enthusiasm of domestic buyers, adding more pressure on local coal markets.