1, China's methanol spot market showed a weaker trend in 2011, some stages have different trends compared to previous years. In terms of full-year market conditions, there is a lack of unilateral price rises, and the characteristics of shocks are more obvious. Secondly, the “Jin 9 Silver 10†is not booming. 2. The National Development and Reform Commission announces that the sales price and feed-in tariff will be raised. The upstream coal market will be affected by the tight supply of electricity. In 2012, the prices of anthracite coal and thermal coal were stable and medium-term, which slightly supported the cost of coal-to-methanol. 3. This year's domestic prices rose in the previous period in the expectation of market demand rebound in September and October. Now the expectations are low and the market outlook is hard to rise. The external factors will continue to support international prices. It is expected that the price difference between the external and internal markets will be further widened at the end of the year. The general import loss will not be eased. The monetary policy will only be fine-tuned, and completely loosened expectations will be frustrated and the European debt crisis will be directly affected. Affected and the indirect effects of the US economy’s recovery next year, the US dollar is expected to step out of the bull market in 2012, and commodities such as bad methanol will be expected. 5. It is expected that RMB 3,000/tonne will become a strong resistance to methanol prices in 2012. The methanol price range will be around RMB 2300-2800/tonne. In the range, prices are less likely to fall below cost support and the industry is facing . Focus on whether the company will obviously reduce the start-up rate and limit production and insurance prices next year. In 2012, the main theme of methanol was short-selling. Review of methanol has been approved by the China Securities Regulatory Commission and was formally listed on October 28. As a new member of chemical products, methanol is significantly different from PTA, LLDPE and PVC that have been listed and traded. On the one hand, the former three belong to the petrochemical industry, while methanol belongs to the coal chemical industry. The factors affecting supply and demand are relatively large. Differences; On the other hand, the other three varieties are close to the end of the petrochemical industry near the final consumption, and methanol is in the middle of the coal chemical industry is an intermediate product, so it should focus on the impact of the methanol chain in the industry chain to comprehensively judge the methanol market The price trend.
In 2011, the Chinese methanol market underwent a "short-term and policy-oriented" volatility characterized by volatility in the first and second quarters, peaking in the third quarter, and sharp decline in the fourth quarter, in a complex internal and external economic environment. In terms of market conditions, the first is the lack of a clear unilateral uptrend, the second is the traditional peak season, and the weaker downstream demand. The above characteristics are summarized as follows:
1 The volatility of the market fluctuates narrower than last year: As of early December, taking the main port of East China as an example, the low point of the year appeared in the late June of June when the tank was 2,600 yuan/ton, and the high point appeared in late September. 3250 yuan / ton, the price difference between the two 650 yuan / ton; and in 2010 the domestic methanol high and low price spreads in the 1650 yuan / ton.
2 “Jin 9 Silver 10′′ trend difference in previous years: September and October as the peak season for downstream demand, but did not show the characteristics of peak season in 2011. Although the intention of the seller after the National Day was raised, but in the macroeconomic situation is weak, the impact of tightening monetary banks, some companies are limited in the capital chain. In addition, the downstream receiving goods are not positive and other aspects are somewhat inhibited the market. According to the monitoring data of Treasure Island, starting from November 2011, the domestic spot price began to fall below the level of the same period of last year. As of the beginning of December, the price of the main port in Jiangsu was nearly RMB 400/t over the same period of last year.
3Inside-inside-outside price inversion, port business losses: In the context of market fluctuations in 2011, the profits of domestic methanol production companies and port importers are different. On the one hand, the profitability of manufacturing enterprises during the year is still acceptable, while importers continue to upside down due to internal and external discs, and business losses have become a common phenomenon.
II. Analysis of the methanol industry chain 1 Methanol upstream raw material market The coal-to-methanol production capacity currently accounts for 63.1% of the national methanol production capacity. After the domestic coal market experienced the summer coal consumption peak period in the near future, the national raw coal production in September was 318 million tons. Monthly decrease of 1.54% compared with the same period in the same period, Shanxi coal production and railway shipments also fell in the chain, the total amount of coal stocks rose, indicating that the current period in the fourth quarter winter season before the peak demand period, the overall upstream demand of methanol in the coal market is periodically a slight fall stage. Further analysis of coal demand's main channel impact on coal prices, after the country's thermal power generation reached a new high of 345.77 billion kWh in August, the domestic electricity enterprises consumed less coal in September than in the previous month, and the electricity enterprise stocks increased to 64.55 million from the previous month. T, a record high in recent two years. According to the law of many years, seasonal off-season electricity consumption in September and October will restrain the upside of thermal coal. Recently, the CBCFI index of coal freight in coastal areas has continued to decline unilaterally since late September. In addition, with the return of normal rail transportation over the Datong-Qinhuangdao Railway in early October, the price of the upstream upstream coal market will also be suppressed. However, we also noticed that the coal inventories at Qinhuangdao and Tianjin's two major ports have been significantly reduced since September, indicating that before the peak season of winter demand, the downstream demand side of coal is fully stockpiling its inventory. Although the seasonal demand is currently in the off-season, the inventory of the port is declining. Coal prices are still high consolidation. On November 30th, the National Development and Reform Commission announced that it would increase the sales price and the on-grid tariff, among which the national average selling price would be 3 cents per kilowatt-hour, which would increase the overall cost of methanol in China by RMB 16-35 per ton, according to the national methanol production per ton of methanol in 2011. Calculated at 510 kWh of electricity, about 20 yuan per ton of methanol; about 1200 kWh of methanol per ton of methanol for fixed bed gasification process, an increase of 30-35 yuan per ton for the cost, and 550 kWh for the coal gasification process, which increases costs. 16 yuan / ton. The NDRC also imposed restrictions on coal prices. The main stipulations are that the contract coal price may rise within the range of 5%, and limit the coal price in the market. The transaction coal price of Qinhuangdao North Port and the coal price of 5500 kcal cannot exceed 800 yuan per ton. In addition, transportation costs in some areas in winter will increase. Due to the above factors, the methanol price in the market may increase slightly.
In the case of anthracite, the anthracite price in Jincheng, Shanxi Province, has stabilized at 850 yuan/ton. The demand for urea has not been buoyant and its price has fallen since the previous high point. With the arrival of the peak demand for nitrogen fertilizer in November, the export profit will be affected by 110% of export high tariffs. The suppression of space will reduce the demand for anthracite; in addition, it will be negatively affected by the downstream demand for methanol, and it will also be bad for anthracite. From the perspective of the recent changes in the cost and profit of coal-to-metallurgy, the estimated cost of coal-made methanol in Shandong is maintained at 2205.3 yuan per ton, and the factory profit is lowered by 230 yuan/ton from the September high point to 794.7 yuan/ton due to the lower spot price. Considering that the upstream raw material cost factor has a limited impact on the price of methanol, the latter stage will focus on whether the coal demand season at the end of the year will lead to an increase in the price of anthracite coal. Negotiations for the opening of the power coal negotiation The agency is expected to increase contract coal prices by 8% next year. As usual, the 2012 coal power contract negotiations will be held in December. Recently, there was news that the NDRC's internal meeting discussed that the price of 2012 key coal contracts could rise by up to 5%. The contract price of thermal coal has not risen for two consecutive years, leading to the continuous expansion of market coal and contract coal prices. It is expected that the contract price of thermal coal will increase by 8% in 2012. It is expected that the upstream costs will continue to provide slight support for methanol and raise the bottom.
2 Methanol midstream supply and demand market In 2011, domestic methanol production enterprises performed well, and methanol production exceeded 20 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 31.1%. By the end of 2011, there were 266 methanol companies in China, accounting for 46.8% of the world's production capacity, and about 5.6 million tons of imported methanol. They were already the world's largest importer of methanol, and China’s influence on the world’s methanol market was increasing.
In the third quarter of this year, the methanol spot market staged a rollercoaster-style advance and post-stagnant market. The spread between Zhangjiagang's electronic market and East China spot price gradually narrowed from RMB110 on September 7 to RMB40/ton on 24th. The electronic disk played a leading role. In terms of operating rate, domestic methanol plant installations have generally restarted since the beginning of August, and the operating rate has increased from 46.44% on August 5 to 58.72% last week. Through analysis of the trend of the spot price of methanol and operating rate throughout the year, we find that there is a time interval of three weeks to one month between the two, that is, the price usually leads the inauguration rate more than 20 days inflection point, and in mid-July the price rises from a fall. The operating rate rebounded at the beginning of August. The fall in spot price at the end of September showed that the supply did not decrease when prices fell, and the supply of methanol in the short term was excessive. According to the above rules, the operating rate will start to fall from 58% in late October, indicating that the space for methanol prices will be limited after entering November.
On the other hand, the domestic methanol price in the third quarter was greatly affected by the international market price. As we all know, an important factor in the price of domestic methanol is the impact of imported methanol on the domestic market. Imported methanol mainly uses natural gas as raw material. We analyze import prices from international gas prices, ocean freight, and methanol devices in the Middle East and North America. Recently, the linkage between international natural gas prices and crude oil trends has been gradually strengthened. The correlation has been as high as 0.86. The early IEA's release of strategic reserve crude oil and S&P’s downgrade of U.S. debt has gradually been absorbed by the market. The Fed’s continued monetary easing and the recent decline in U.S. crude oil inventories are expected to continue the rebound from the lows in early August. The September crude oil export tax will increase by 1.3% also shows that optimistic about the international market trend in September, so natural gas prices will also strengthen, boosting the cost of imported methanol. In addition, it should be pointed out that natural gas and crude oil prices have been in a downtrend since May this year, but the price of imported methanol has kept rising during the same period. This means that the early weakening of raw material prices did not drag methanol down. It became a booster for the rise of imported methanol. We compare the Baltic Sea Dry Bulk Index with the CFR China price and found that since the beginning of this year, the linkage between the two has not been very close. Even the period from the beginning of July to the end of August has shown a change in the opposite direction. This shows that the impact of ocean freight on imported methanol is very weak. . In addition, through the tracking of the start-up of international enterprise installations when several imported inflection points of imported methanol prices appeared this year, the overall operating rate of international companies has continued to fall since the price began to fall in January, hitting a low of 35.75% during the year in June. After the point, the methanol price started to rebound and the operating rate rebounded to 58.8% when the price changed to shock in mid-August. This indicates that the increase in imported methanol was mainly driven by the low operating rate of methanol plants in the Middle East, North America, and Southeast Asia, plus the rebound in natural gas prices. As of October 24, the import duty of imported methanol was reported at 3134 yuan/ton, which was higher than the spot price of East China at 164 yuan/ton. The import arbitrage window has not been opened since the second half of the year. Although the international natural gas trend remained sluggish, the impact of the overhaul of the international methanol plant operating rate has reduced the 85% since August to the recent 60.4% increase in external plate prices. This has also contributed to the continued strength of the foreign exchange rate, in addition to the BDI freight and the external disk methanol price. Strong linkage, with the freight index unilateral upward, making the international methanol prices rise, stimulate the intraday rise. As for the domestic spot price spread, the spot price difference between East China and Northwestern China fell from a high of 910 yuan/tonne on September 15 to 620 yuan/tonne on the 24th. Compared with the domestic port methanol inventory, we found that during the period from mid-June to mid-September, the price gap between the two cities widened. East China's stocks were unilaterally declining. Since the recent low point began to rebound, the East China price was suppressed, so the price difference appeared. Fall back.
Taken together, this year's domestic prices in the market speculation in September and October demand recovery in the context of expectations of earlier rise, and now is expected to fail, the market is unable to rise, while the outer disk positive factors will continue to support international prices, is expected to end the end of the year Further widening, concerned about methanol export arbitrage opportunities. In the next year, international natural gas prices will follow the rise of crude oil, and then it will focus on whether East China has a comparative advantage between spot and imported CPV.
3 Downstream Formaldehyde Market In recent years, China's formaldehyde market has been adversely affected by the economy. In particular, after the financial crisis in the second half of 2008, the market fell and demand growth slowed down. Companies faced sales difficulties and the overall start-up fell. At present, China's formaldehyde industry has the pressure of overcapacity, and it is also a prominent problem that has existed for quite some time in the future. Judging from the situation in 2011, the formaldehyde industry in China is facing a development bottleneck. On the one hand, real estate development projects have been gradually reduced due to the impact of real estate control policies, leading to a decline in the demand for basic building materials in the development of real estate. On the other hand, due to the increase in raw material costs and the significant increase in labor costs, labor-intensive sheet companies are facing a severe living environment. Moreover, as the United States raises the formaldehyde standard, China's floor exports have plummeted, which in turn affects downstream demand for formaldehyde.
The "12th Five-Year Plan" formaldehyde industry target, by 2015, the total output of formaldehyde industry reached 25 million tons in order to promote the formaldehyde industry to maintain a healthy and stable and good development, the formaldehyde industry 12th Five-Year Plan determined that by 2015, the total output value of the formaldehyde industry enterprises reached RMB 45 billion, accounting for approximately 0.3% of the total output value of oil and chemical industries of RMB 1.5 billion; the total capacity of the formaldehyde industry is controlled within 35 million tons/year, with an average annual growth rate of 5%, which is significantly higher than the 24.5% of the “Eleventh Five-Year Planâ€. Fall back. By 2015, the total output of the formaldehyde industry will reach 25 million tons with an average annual growth rate of 6.7%, which is a significant drop from 25.6% in the “Eleventh Five-Year Planâ€.
Formaldehyde accounts for about 30% of the methanol consumption. Affected by the higher methanol prices in the upper reaches since June, the price of formaldehyde has risen under the cost support. However, the operating rate of formaldehyde enterprises did not increase at the same time, but dropped from 66% in the middle of the year to 62% in late October. Comparing the prices of methanol and formaldehyde in Shandong and Hebei in January-September this year, the cumulative increase in methanol prices in the two places reached 9.8%, but the increase in formaldehyde was only 4%. Combined with the analysis of the downstream demand for formaldehyde, formaldehyde is mainly used as binders and coatings for wood furniture. By comparing the trend of changes in the monthly value-added of furniture industry and formaldehyde production this year, we find that the added value of the furniture industry has reached a high point since February, and the monthly The chain fell sharply successively. Despite a slight rebound after June, the September data fell again, reflecting the fact that the overall situation of the furniture industry this year has been very unsatisfactory under the influence of domestic property market regulation. Affected by the sluggish downstream demand, formaldehyde production in September fell to 1.5266 million tons, a decrease of 14.2% from the March high of 1.7994 million tons. At present, the furniture industry has been oversupplyed by the impact of the regulation of the property market. However, the absence of a reduction in formaldehyde production in the early period directly led to excess and a backlog of formaldehyde inventory, making the price increase of formaldehyde in the early stage significantly weaker than that of methanol. At present, the profits from formaldehyde production in Shandong have dropped from the high of 72 yuan/ton in August to the current RMB 20/ton, which is close to the break-even point. As the “Golden 9 Silver 10†market of the property market this year was completely frustrated, as of October 23, 29 real estate listed companies had announced the third quarterly report, and the third quarter net profit fell by 40% month-on-month, and the net operating cash flow from the same period of last year. The 3.08 billion yuan plunged to 1.66 billion yuan. The State Council and the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development have made it clear that the regulation of the property market will not be relaxed in the next year, but at the same time, we must pay attention to the potential demand for formaldehyde in the construction of safe houses throughout the country. It is expected that the trend of formaldehyde prices in 2012 will seek balance in the control of commodity housing and the support of affordable housing, and it is expected that the price will show a weak trend of shocks.
4 Downstream dimethyl ether market Last year, China's dimethyl ether industry performance was sluggish. The government departments continued to increase the monitoring of liquefied gas blending efforts. The overall start of the industry was about 20%. After a year of dormancy, the dimethyl ether industry recovered in 2011, and the average operating rate in the country was more than 30%. The rise in the price of crude oil has pushed up the price of liquefied gas, and the demand for dimethyl ether in the downstream gas stations has increased rapidly. In the first half of the year, the production units of dimethyl ether were basically in a profitable state. The recovery of the market also caused some units to revert their attention back to DME. However, some manufacturers that had been shut down for a long time in the second half of the year started construction. In addition, some new units were put into operation. As a result, the operating rate once reached about 45%, and the oversupply caused DME profits are thin, some manufacturers even suffered losses, and profits have also decreased. On June 16th, the National Standard for Dimethyl Ether for Fuel for Vehicles was formally implemented, and the prospect of DME replacing diesel was broad. Industry insiders believe that with standards, there is equivalent evidence that DME still has a broad market prospect as a substitute for diesel.
In September, the production of dimethyl ether was 392,200 tons, and the cyclical ratio rebounded. The domestic dimethyl ether enterprise operating rate rose from 41.5% at the beginning of August to the current 47.2%, and the market supply was still sufficient. The accidental slump in South China LPG last week, the downstream multi-destination market apparently slowed down, and the seller’s pressure gradually recovered. The price of LPG fell due to price adjustment, and the spot price of DME was higher this year, resulting in the replacement of liquefied dimethyl ether in East China. The gap in gas price dropped from the profit of 2,250 yuan/ton in April of the previous year to 220 yuan/ton on October 24, and the replacement efficiency has shrunk by 90%. At the same time, due to the impact of international crude oil prices falling from high levels in June and the New Development and Reform Commission's new cut in diesel prices on October 7, the profitability of DME's substitution effect on diesel in the Henan region has grown sharply from 1800 yuan/ton in late June. Declined to 429 yuan/ton on October 24. Although the profit margins of both major demand areas have been greatly reduced, the spot price of dimethyl ether has been limited and the operating rate has risen. The reason is that in the near future, the efficiency of dimethyl ether as a substitute for diesel has recently changed. The price difference of substitution effect has rebounded from a low position, and the abnormal shortage of supply in the diesel market this year has limited the decline of dimethyl ether. To further analyze the refined oil market, the price adjustment mechanism for oil price changes in the three places implemented in China was once approaching -4% price cut in early October, and crude oil rebounded again. Mobile prices have now returned above the moving average. Although the NDRC has recently lowered the price of gasoline and diesel, the total amount of diesel inventories in the 13 major provinces in China has dropped unilaterally from 3.257 million tons in April to 200.47 million tons on October 17, a drop of up to 38%. After the peak of demand peak, September is the trough period. From October to the end of the year, the apparent consumption of diesel will increase month by month. From June to September this year, the operating rate of the refineries of the two major oil companies was only around 77%, which was about 7% lower than in 2011. In October, after the NDRC lowered the price, the profit of the refinery was further reduced, and then it was suspended and overhauled. As a result, oil shortages in various parts of the country increased the tightness of supply, which increased the market's demand for dimethyl ether to replace diesel. So despite the current weakness in dimethyl ether, space is limited.
After the National Day holiday, the stoppage of manufacturers' production at the end of October provided a certain basis for the rebound of the DME market in November. At the beginning of the month, the methanol market in the Mainland has stopped growing, and the cost pressure of dimethyl ether manufacturers has been reduced, and the price can be reduced according to the stock situation to promote shipments. The liquefied petroleum gas market went up and down, and the dimethyl ether market had no good support for the atmosphere. The downstream manufacturers were still using the market to make up for their losses. As a result, the dimethyl ether market was unable to ascend. Manufacturers mostly shipped according to their own conditions, and all regions went up and down. Mixed, but the overall atmosphere has improved significantly from the previous month, and the bottom line has risen. In mid-November, due to the reduction in the amount of dimethyl ether resources in each district, coupled with the cyclical replenishment in the downstream, the manufacturers pushed up some of the downstream downstream to buy up prices, driving prices to continue to rise, and then the atmosphere of shipments became weaker, and most of them stabilized. In late November, the downstream liquefied gas market continued to oscillate and there was no support for the dimethyl ether market. The raw material methanol dropped down the channel, and the dimethyl ether manufacturers got rid of the cost pressure, and the price operation space also increased. There is no support for the upper and lower reaches, and the DME market steadily declines. In addition to falling prices of raw materials, the pre-market price rises, the downstream replenishment ends, the demand is saturated, and the manufacturers have difficulties in shipping. They can only reduce price promotions to ease sales pressure. From 41% at the beginning of the month to about 35%, the market supply is still in excess.
It is expected that the substitution of liquefied petroleum gas and diesel will become more apparent under the premise of a series of policies supported by the country in the next year. In 2012, the trend will be stable and bullish.
5 Downstream MTBE methyl tert-butyl ether market 90% of domestic MTBE used for gasoline additive demand, affected by the decline in crude oil earlier this year dragged down the international MTBE market trend, as of October 24 outside the MTBE CIF import value paid 9,739 yuan Ton, the average price of Shandong's refining industry was RMB 637/ton higher than that of the previous day, and the import price was still hanging upside down, but the spread between the two prices narrowed. Considering the apparent consumption of gasoline, from October to the end of the year, the cyclical demand for gasoline will increase, which will boost the demand for MTBE and other reconciliation oil markets. From the supply and demand balance sheet of MTBE, the supply and demand gap of MTBE continued to narrow due to the impact of imported gasoline in the first half of this year and the gasoline explosion and flammability issues at some domestic gas stations seriously affected the MTBE's demand for addition and other factors, but oil was used in summer. After the arrival of the peak, the gap between supply and demand has been expanding for three consecutive months since June, resulting in the domestic MTBE ex-factory price rebounding from its low position since August. However, since July 1, 2011, domestic tariffs for gasoline imports have fallen sharply from 5% to 1%, given that the surge in gasoline imports in the latter period will cause limited room for MTBE demand and price rebound. In terms of costs, as of October 24, the average price of Shandong smelting was reported at 9101 yuan/ton. Affected by the recent fall in the price of methanol raw materials, the MTBE cost retraced slightly, but the price of Shandong smelting and refining did not change much. In the short term, the demand was warming. Pay attention to the impact of the number of imported gasoline in the market on the market.
On the other hand, on July 2nd, "Standard Net", headed by the Industry Development Department of the National Development and Reform Commission, published the "methanol gasoline M85" standard, and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology gradually stepped in to promote the use of high-proportion methanol gasoline. The current promotion work is already in Provincial pilot operation. In 2012, the proportion of methanol-gasoline consumption will increase, and increasing methanol demand will indirectly drive up the price of methanol, making MTBE benefit from cost support. MTBE prices are expected to remain stable overall next year.
6 In the downstream acetic acid market, domestic glacial acetic acid rose sharply under the influence of the recovery of operating rate of the company in September. However, we noticed that the market demand for acetic acid is still unsatisfactory. At present, the traditional demand for acetic acid in September has been in this year's peak season. Not reflected. Although the price of methanol and PTA affecting the upstream and downstream of acetic acid rose out of the market in July and August one after the other, the price of acetic acid reflected this. By comparing the monthly production rate of acetic acid from January to July and the proportion of methanol production method, it was found that the theoretically calculated monthly production of methanol-to-acetic acid accounted for more than 100% of the monthly output, which means that when the price rose at the beginning of the second quarter, A large amount of methanol was used for the later production of acetic acid, which directly led to an excess supply of acetic acid in summer. Since the price hit a high point in March, it fell and then rose. It also caused a reason why acetic acid pulled up the methanol in July and the recent downstream PTA speculation reduced production. The favorable factors reflect the reasons for numbness. In addition, the devices that had previously been shut down have generally resumed production since the end of June, and the rate of restart has risen again, further suppressing prices. Although the import of acetic acid has been higher than the price of the inner plate, which has curbed the increase in supply, the upstream methanol began to fall since October, while the downstream PTA has fallen sharply and the price of ethyl acetate and other drugs are still falling and continue to suppress the price of acetic acid. It is expected that with the end of the peak season, the price of acetic acid in the market outlook will continue to be in a trend of oscillating gloomy.
In the second half of the year, due to the shutdown and overhaul of the Shandong Yankuang plant and the Shunda maintenance plan was reported, favorable factors for the reduction in supply, and support for some suppliers to slightly raise the quotations, promoted the atmosphere of the downstream inquiries procurement has picked up. However, the overall supply and demand of the market was loose, and the major factories in the north had already had sufficient inventory, and the weak export conditions caused some manufacturers to have higher sales pressure. After this period, the overhaul of corporate devices was gradually restarted, and the gradual increase in the supply of goods from the community has formed a certain impact on the mindset of the industry. From this point of view, the atmosphere is full of enthusiasm, and most of the industry’s mentality is cautious.
At the end of the year, some supply manufacturers reduced the start-up load of the equipment due to large inventory pressure, but the social circulation was still relatively abundant. The demand off-season also gradually came, and then the SME’s fund surface was slightly tight, the market’s negative factors gathered, and the manufacturers’ intentions were shipped. Positive, but firm trading volume is limited. Not only at home, China's major export markets such as Asia and Europe have also continued to be trapped in a stalemate. There has been a clear lack of inquiries regarding foreign sources of goods, and the volume of exports has gradually shrunk, which has directly caused an increase in domestic sales. Therefore, in the context of the lack of market demand for domestic sales, the overall domestic transaction volume has been significantly reduced. At the same time, the raw material methanol market has also fallen unabated, resulting in an increase in the bearish sentiment of the traders and deepening the lack of cost support. The industry’s expectations of acetic acid continue to be bearish.
7 Downstream coal-to-olefins market In 2011, the apparent consumption of ethylene and propylene in China reached 14.7111 million tons. According to incomplete statistics, in 2011 China's demand for ethylene and propylene has exceeded 20 million tons, and the demand gap in China's propylene market has exceeded 5 million tons. Faced with such a large energy supply shortage, CTOs have become a new look for the ethylene and propylene markets. The "Coal Deep Processing Demonstration Project Plan" drafted by the National Development and Reform Commission will be formally introduced. By 2015, it will master a large-scale complete set of technologies, including 1.8 million tons of coal-to-methanol, 600,000 to 1 million tons of coal, methanol to olefins, and 200,000 to 300,000 tons of coal to ethylene glycol, with project design and construction and key Equipment manufacturing capabilities.
The WTI rushed to $100 in early December, but it only lasted for about a week, and it has recently fallen to $94, which is in line with our judgment one month ago. As 2012 is approaching, WTI may increase to US$100 to US$120 next year due to the tight crude oil supply, especially the huge shortage of crude oil reserves in emerging countries, the US energy policy, the possible outbreak of the US-Iraqi War, and the general global monetary easing. Affected by crude oil, the major olefins such as ethylene, propylene, and butadiene all showed a trend of reversal ahead of schedule.
As of October 24, the cost of domestic methanol-to-ethylene production was 12039 yuan/ton, and the cost of domestic naphtha-made ethylene was 19,765 yuan/ton, which was affected by the earlier rise in methanol price and the weaker naphtha price. The high of 11,119 yuan/ton on May 16 dropped to 7,427 yuan/ton. Looking at the olefins market this year, although the prices of major olefins such as butadiene and propylene are still hitting record highs, monthly domestic ethylene production has fallen month-on-month since March’s peak in March, and this has affected domestic naphtha production. Apparent consumption also fell significantly. As a result, domestic naphtha prices have continued to decline since the second quarter. As a result, the cost of ethylene from naphtha has dropped at the same time. International Taiwanese buyers said at the press conference of Qingdao Petrochemical that the current international market With the bad collection, market demand is very weak. End-users are very cautious and fear that the goods will continue to decline. As a result, the substitution effect of methanol to ethylene will be weakened and the ethylene demand will decline to jointly suppress the demand for olefins to produce methanol. However, taking into account the comparative advantage of methanol is still apparent, the short-term domestic devices temporarily no need to cut production and shutdown, so this link has little effect on the actual impact of the current price of methanol.
It is expected that as a number of new installations will be put into operation next year, the consumption of methanol for coal to olefins will increase in 2012, but the proportion will still be very high compared with the traditional demand of formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, and acetic acid. Small, it will not have a substantial impact on the overall market price of methanol.
Third, the macro-level New Year, the macro-level affecting methanol prices mainly by the following three factors: property market regulation, monetary policy and the US dollar index.
In the real estate market, the impact of policies on the real estate industry is self-evident. The recently held Politburo meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference emphasized that "adherence to the real estate control policy will not waver and promote the reasonable return of housing prices." This is interpreted by the industry as management set the tone for the policy direction of the real estate industry in 2012. According to the statistics released by the National Bureau of Statistics, starting from October, from the data on housing sales price changes in 70 large and medium-sized cities across the country, it appears that cities with limited purchases and non-restricted purchases have fallen at the same time. The rapid cooling of the market is mainly reflected in the following points: First, the overall turnover of commercial housing has been sluggish. Second, prices rose before falling. Third, the increase in the scale of real estate development investment continued to decline. It is expected that after the economic work conference, some developers and local governments expecting to relax the regulation of the real estate market due to the shrinking risk of the real economy will be able to re-understand the market. The apparent price reduction will become more common and the property market has completely gone into winter. . It is expected that the current downward trend will continue in the first half of the year.
In terms of monetary policy, after more than a year of tightening monetary policy, the People's Bank of China cut the deposit reserve ratio on November 30th. The new expression of the Central Political Bureau’s policy objectives for 2012 means that economic growth will become the most important goal next year. Inflation is no longer a major contradiction. Monetary policy is expected to gradually ease. Under the tightening policy, inflation seems to have eased. According to macroeconomic data released recently by the National Bureau of Statistics, the CPI of consumer prices in September rose by 6.1% year-on-year, and price increases have fallen for two consecutive months. On October 11, the "Quarterly Economic Outlook Report" issued by the Bank of China referred to as the "Report" below. If the global economic downturn coincides with China's economic slowdown, China should adjust or reverse certain policy positions, such as reducing bank deposits. Reserve rate. It is expected that the domestic monetary policy will shift from being tight to fine-tuning or “directional easing†next year, and there will be signs of relaxation. However, considering the experience of loosening monetary policy after adjusting house prices in 2008 and causing the property market to lose control, it does not have a large change in monetary policy. Counting.
As far as the U.S. dollar is concerned, there are two boosters for the US dollar bull market in 2012. The warming up of the risk aversion caused by the shadow of the European debt crisis is the direct driving force of the U.S. dollar, and the U.S. economic fundamental situation is also moving in favor of the U.S. dollar. The direction of development. So far, all the efforts of the euro zone countries can indeed help some banks ease the pressure of **, and can show the market the government's determination to rescue the market and help delay the outbreak of the European debt crisis. However, so far, these measures have not been of much use for improving the financial status of European countries. They are still unable to recover the trend of the outbreak of European debt. The European debt issue is, in essence, a financial issue. The European debt issue will continue to deepen before an effective fiscal reform policy is introduced. In February of next year, the number of debts due to Italy will be the peak of 2012, which is a risk point that cannot be ignored. Fitch said that the "comprehensive solution" to the crisis in the euro area is "technically and politically inaccessible." The company said on December 12 that no action was taken at the EU leaders summit last week and that there was no effect on the pressure to ease the rating of European sovereign debt. When the ratio of stock-to-GDP pull rate is greater than 3, the probability that the pull rate changes to positive is approximately 90%. When the leading index is less than zero, the probability that the pull rate changes to negative is also approximately 90%. U.S. inventory investment rate will experience directional changes after experiencing multiple quarters of negative growth. At present, the uncertain risk of U.S. economic growth is less than that of the EU, and U.S. economic growth will be better than EU countries in the next 2-3 years. In fact, the growth rate of US GDP in 2010-2011 has been higher than that of EU countries. Since 2009, the dollar has appreciated significantly against the pound. From the perspective of economic environment, the average level of euro-zone countries is not better than that of the United Kingdom, so the dollar will appreciate against the euro. It is expected that the dollar will continue to look bullish next year with a target of 100, which will make the commodity bearish.
Fourth, the trend of the new year outlook In 2012, the direction of the methanol industry will find clues in two aspects, one is the change in consumption structure, and the other is the state of the chemical industry in economic operations. From the currently available methanol industry supply and demand balance table this year, as of the end of December, the average operating rate of methanol companies is around 52%, and the annual cumulative methanol production is about 21 million tons. The average methanol production capacity utilization rate for this year is 45.01%, higher than last year's 41.93%. Excluding the demand for methanol from the four major consumption directions, including formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, acetic acid, and MTBE, which accounted for 68% of downstream methanol consumption, the domestic methanol supply surplus was approximately 8.3 million tons, taking into account the potential under full load of operating rates. Excess supply, the theoretical surplus of the methanol industry in 2011 will reach 13 million tons, and this year's new production capacity of about 9.19 million tons Treasure Island estimated that the supply surplus will further increase next year. In terms of downstream consumption structure, the growth rate of formaldehyde consumption in 2011 was relatively large. Methanol produced by methanol accounted for 32.67% of the total supply of methanol, an increase of 5.67% over the previous year, and dimethyl ether slightly increased by 2% to 21% over the previous year. Acetic acid decreased. 2% to 9%, MTBE consumption has not changed, it is expected that the traditional downstream demand for formaldehyde in the short term as the leader of the methanol consumption leader is difficult to change, a great impact on the price of methanol. In addition, judging from the relationship between the average annual operating rate of enterprises and the weighted average price, the elasticity of elasticity theory changes the operating rate elasticity from 0.05 in 2010 to 1.71 this year, that is, from lack of flexibility to flexibility, showing that the coming year Methanol price changes will cause changes in the operating rate of the company's larger volatility. On the other hand, according to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, the total value-added of the industrial sector this year tends to fall month-on-month, but the value-added of the petrochemical industry has outperformed the broader market, and is more resilient under the economic slowdown environment. It is expected that even if the economic slowdown next year is a foregone conclusion, the petrochemical industry can hardly say much room for growth even if its relative negative impact is small.
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