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The report pointed out that after the transition from high-speed growth to low- and medium-speed growth, China's fiscal revenue growth will show a significant decline. The growth rate of fiscal expenditure will also decline during the same period, but due to the rigid expenditure, the growth rate will decline below the fiscal revenue. The overall debt level of China's central government will be improved to a certain extent, with four specific characteristics.
First, even if we consider implicit debt and count government assets in a narrow-caliber manner, China's current asset-liability ratio and liquidity are still at the world average. Government debt accounts for a lower proportion of GDP and risks are controllable.
Second, because China's GDP base is relatively large, the proportion of debt to GDP is more sensitive to the growth rate of GDP. Maintaining relatively high GDP growth can significantly curb debt levels.
Third, as the economic growth rate declines, China's debt level will gradually increase. According to the stable scenario, China's debt-to-GDP ratio will be around 26% by 2020. According to the high-risk scenario, China's debt level as a percentage of GDP will be around 30% by 2020, which is within the security scope.
Fourth, after the economic growth rate declines, the growth rate of fiscal expenditure is higher than the growth rate of income, and China's deficit rate will increase significantly. After 2018, the deficit rate will gradually approach the alert level of 3%.
In order to improve China's debt capacity to prevent systemic risks, the report proposes four policy recommendations. First, foster new growth drivers and maintain rapid economic growth. Second, accelerate the reform of the tax system and balance the relationship between income increase and economic growth. Third, control fiscal expenditures, optimize expenditure structure, and increase expenditure efficiency. Finally, improve the construction of relevant systems to prevent financial risks.
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Abstract Recently, the research group of the Development Research Center of the State Council released the report on China's Medium and Long-term Liability and Systemic Risk Research. The report shows that in 2010, the net asset and liability of the Chinese government was 11.3 trillion yuan, and the probability of debt risk was low. Chinese government assets are negative...
Recently, the Research Group of the Development Research Center of the State Council released the report on China's Medium and Long-term Liability and Systemic Risk Research. The report shows that in 2010, the net asset and liability of the Chinese government was 11.3 trillion yuan, and the probability of debt risk was low. The government's asset-liability ratio is at a medium level in the world, and the possibility of a recent debt crisis is unlikely.