Japan's Nuclear Power Crisis Causes Big Expansion of Solar Energy Industry

The crisis of the Fukushima nuclear power plant in Japan has not yet been resolved. China has also started the policy of stopping the approval of nuclear power projects.

“We must explore new energy sources.” On March 23, Shi Ze, a researcher at the China Institute of International Issues who specializes in energy strategy research, told the reporter that the world’s demand for energy will not be slowed down by nuclear power, so countries may Increase investment in other clean energy sources.

“Renewable energy such as wind power and solar energy will have better development space as a whole.” Xie Hongwen, deputy director of the New Energy Division of the China Hydropower Engineering Consulting Group, told this reporter that the nuclear power crisis will shift some nuclear power resources to other clean energy sources. With the advancement of technology and the reduction of costs, the development of wind energy and solar energy is entirely possible with a major breakthrough.

In the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” energy plan issued by the National Energy Administration, by 2020 wind power and solar energy will increase by 3 times and 30 times respectively, but Wang Sicheng, a researcher at the Energy Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission, believes that “the goal of solar energy is set More conservative."

Gu Huamin, president of China’s largest solar energy system builder, said that “China has a lot of enthusiasm for solar energy development, but the lack of relevant systems, such as on-grid tariffs, has hindered the development of China’s solar energy market.”

“In the end, how to invest depends on the specific situation.” Shih believes that the proportion of renewable energy such as wind power and solar energy will increase, but it will be a long-term and slow process. “China’s huge investment in wind power has in some respects been China's wind power is facing a surplus, and the overall traditional energy dominant position cannot be shaken in the short term."

New Opportunities in the Nuclear Power Crisis “The nuclear crisis in Japan will certainly have an impact on the development of nuclear power in the world.” Wang Sicheng said that the nuclear power development that has just been restored in the past 20 years may be affected.

Since the Chernobyl nuclear power plant accident in 1986, the world nuclear power industry has experienced a state of almost stagnation for more than 20 years. In the past five years, nuclear power has finally recovered, and the world is setting off a climax of nuclear power development.

However, the nuclear crisis triggered by the Great Japan Earthquake is no different from giving the nuclear power industry that wants to stand up. As the country with the most rapid development of nuclear power in the near future, the State Council of the People's Republic of China decided at the executive meeting of the State Council held on March 16 that “the approval of nuclear power safety planning before the approval of the nuclear safety program includes projects for carrying out preparatory work”.

Although the development of nuclear power was hindered, Ishizawa stated that "the rapid growth of energy demand caused by economic development cannot be controlled."

According to reports released by the International Energy Agency and the China Energy Research Association, China is the world’s largest energy consumer in 2010, and energy demand will continue to grow at a high rate during the “Twelfth Five-year Plan” and even 2020.

In the existing energy consumption structure in China, traditional coal, oil and natural gas account for over 90% of the total. Although China's coal resources are abundant, the sustained high-speed growth of production has reached the limit.

In oil and natural gas, more than half of China’s consumption depends on imports. Continuously increasing traditional fossil fuels such as coal, oil and natural gas will undoubtedly put China's energy security at great risk.

On the other hand, in the context of promoting environmental protection and reducing greenhouse gas emissions in the world, the international community has set off an upsurge in reducing carbon emissions. The Chinese government also promised the international community that the energy consumption per unit of GDP by 2020 would be 40% lower than in 2005. -45% of non-fossil energy (excluding nuclear energy) accounted for 15% of primary energy.

Moreover, “coal, oil and other fossil energy reserves are always limited, and pollution is serious, and gradually reduce their dependence on the inevitable trend.” Ishizawa said that whether China or Europe and the United States and other developed countries, the proportion of traditional fossil energy should be reduced.

The large-scale development is still restricted. Deputy Secretary of the National Energy Administration Deputy Director Deng Kui said that during the “12th Five-Year Plan” period, China initially plans to install 150 million kilowatts of wind power by 2020, and the installed capacity of solar power will reach 20 million kilowatts.

According to the data from the Energy Bureau, after five years of development, China’s wind power has added 13.9 million kilowatts of grid-connected capacity by 2010, ranking the first in the world, with cumulative installed capacity of 31.07 million kilowatts, which is second only to the United States. Ranked second in the world. In 2010, the new installed capacity of solar power was 400,000 kilowatts, and the cumulative installed capacity was 700,000 kilowatts.

As far as the world is concerned, the installed capacity of wind power in China is already firmly at the top of the list, while Germany, which has the world's largest installed capacity of solar power, reached 7 million kilowatts in 2010. It is more difficult for wind power to expand substantially. In comparison, China's solar power has more potential.

For the goal of solar energy reaching 20 million kilowatts by 2020, Wang Sicheng believes that it is "more conservative." "China's solar energy mainly depends on large-scale power plants, and European and American solar energy is mainly installed on the roofs of homes and commercial buildings. China has very great potential. ."

However, both Shi Ze and Xie Hongwen are not optimistic about the development of China's solar energy during the "12th Five-Year Plan" period. "China is not yet ready to accept solar energy on a large scale."

At the current stage, China’s solar market is dominated by bidding for solar power plants and building integration projects. The former subsidizes the operation of solar power stations and the latter subsidizes the construction of solar power stations.

Since 2009, China has held two biddings for concessions for solar power plants. The National Energy Administration hopes to determine the feed-in tariff for solar power plants through bidding.

However, Gu Huamin stated that due to the overall small scale of bidding for concessions, most of the successful bidders did not use economic efficiency as the starting point for bids, resulting in a low bid price, and that the on-grid price of the place where the concession bidding was conducted had to be determined by tender. The bid price is a reference, which in turn hinders the development of local solar power plants.

In terms of solar building integration, according to Wang Sicheng, by 2011, the National Energy Administration approved an installed capacity of 400,000 kilowatts. During the entire construction process, many places were quietly withdrawn from the enthusiastic participation, and the cost of solar cells was Changes and grid access difficulties hinder the development of solar building integration.

The world's major solar energy development countries, such as Germany, have mainly subsidized the operation of solar power stations, which requires a higher on-grid tariff to purchase electricity generated by them.

“In the short term, the on-grid tariff method for solar power plants in China may not be introduced because the cost of solar power generation is relatively high.” Xie Hongwen said that since solar power costs about twice the cost of wind power, large-scale development requires the government to come up with A lot of money to support. At this stage, China’s financial subsidies for wind power and solar power mostly come from subsidies for renewable energy in electricity prices. That is, for every degree of electricity consumed in the society, 0.4 cents is used to subsidize renewable energy. “On the current development of renewable energy Speed, renewable energy subsidies may not be sufficient after two years, but it is difficult to increase subsidies for renewable energy again."

"We must expect advances in technology and cost." Xie Hongwen said that the current planning is based on the consideration of the current technological and economic environment. If there are changes in the grid, solar power costs, etc., "the speed of development may far exceed everyone's imagination." For example, previous wind power."