Experts predict the trend of aluminum futures in Shanghai on the 5th

On December 4, Shanghai Aluminum opened sharply higher, oscillated and finished slightly higher across the board. Industry analysts believe that aluminum prices are expected to rise further under the influence of weaker US dollar, reduced inventory, and a slight gap in global supply and demand.

On Monday, December 4, the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHE) aluminum main 702 contract opened at 20,310 yuan and closed at 20,300 yuan, up 180 yuan; the spot 612 contract closed at 20,950 yuan, up 100 yuan.

Factors such as a rebound in crude oil, a weakening US dollar, a reduction in inventories, and a small gap in global supply and demand will further stimulate aluminum prices.

LME aluminum performed well on the 1st day. Under the impetus of weak US dollar and technical buying, market prices rose sharply and climbed to a two-week high. The final price closed at 2811.5 USD/ton, up 76.5 US dollars. On the domestic front, the rise in LME aluminum gave the market a boost. Shanghai Aluminum's overall performance was near-weak and strong. The 0703 contract opened higher and higher, prices and prices rose, and ended at RMB 20,120/tonne, up RMB 440. .

For a long period of time, aluminum is always expected to follow the identity of copper, but the recent trend of copper and aluminum has been divided, the aluminum began to walk out of the independent market. As for the current LME aluminum trend, the rebound of non-ferrous metals will create a bullish atmosphere for aluminum. The fundamentals of crude oil rebound, weaker US dollar, reduced inventory, and a small gap in global supply and demand will further stimulate aluminum prices. . On the negative side, the decline in domestic alumina prices and the rumors that China will raise export tariffs on aluminum-based materials will pose a certain bearish for aluminum prices.

Shanghai Stock Exchange aluminum inventories increased by 3980 tons to 21273 tons last week (as of the 1st). LME aluminum inventories decreased by 1,425 tons to 678,650 tons on December 1.

LME aluminum week K line shows that the market price drop test 2630 box breakthrough is basically valid, the current six-week K line combination indicates that the market state is a strong adjustment during the ascendant, breakthrough 2850 points can continue to follow up .

The strong domestic consumption still maintains the spot price above RMB 21,000/t, and it is recommended to focus on the 0703 contract.

Shanghai Aluminum maintains a weaker upward trend and it is expected that this situation will continue in the short term.

The focus of the domestic metal market trading is still on the aluminum market, on the whole, the aluminum market is a narrow range of high volatility after opening, the market is mainly to close out.

The trend of the LME metal market on the 1st is still the dominant factor in the domestic market. The LME market has a wide range of differences, with copper prices falling by $45 and aluminum prices rising by $76. From the published data, it is greatly negative. For example, the manufacturing purchasing managers index released by the United States is only 49.5, which is below 50 for the first time in more than three years, and it has entered negative growth. Considering that the US housing market entered a recession and announced low retail data in 2006, these undoubtedly indicate that the US economic growth is slowing faster than the market expected. Not only that, but the price index is still expanding in the index, plus Fed officials on the same day. The speeches that are worried about inflation show that the United States is facing a dilemma of economic growth and inflation. Historically, these are undoubtedly signs of the US economic cycle entering a turning point.

However, the strong trend of aluminum prices at weekends still indicates that the focus of the market has not yet shifted to economic concerns. The huge spot positions and huge call options of the aluminum market are still playing an important role. On the 6th is the LME's option announcement day, the market is concerned about the impact of the implementation of call options will bring to the aluminum market, as well as the spot position of a huge month, the new spot to the three-month spread from the discount of 20 US dollars faster A rise to a discount of US$13 undoubtedly indicates that the bulls have taken advantage. Judging from the strong performance of LME's three-month aluminum, the aluminum market is still on the upside in the short term. From a technical point of view, LME's three-month aluminum still has the potential to challenge 2900 or even 3,000 US dollars. The key support is $2,800.

The atmosphere in the domestic market is even stronger. From the perspective of the market, the rise in aluminum prices also appears to be weak. Currently, domestic aluminum prices are strong and it is expected that this situation will continue in the short term. From a technical point of view, domestic aluminum is still up to 21,000 yuan in February.