Downstream industries bring huge business opportunities to the machine tool industry

Editor 's note : The fields of aviation, aerospace, shipbuilding, electric power, energy, automobile, rail transit, high-speed railway, national defense and military in the downstream industries of China's machine tool industry will be widely used during the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" period and even longer periods. And deep structural adjustment, which will bring huge business opportunities to the machine tool industry.

The development of the "12th Five-Year Plan" in the machine tool industry is vast
In 2009, China became the world's largest machine tool producer for the first time. However, China's domestic demand for high-end CNC machine tools mainly relies on imports. The CNC systems and functional components needed to develop medium and high-end CNC machine tools mainly come from overseas. In October 2010, the State Council issued the "Decision of Accelerating the Cultivation and Development of Strategic Emerging Industries", pointing out that it is actively developing intelligent manufacturing equipment centered on digital, flexible and system integration technologies, among which high-end CNC machine tools are the top priority. . During the entire “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” period, the development of high-end equipment manufacturing will greatly promote the rapid growth of the machine tool industry.

Taking heavy-duty machine tools as an example, although after years of technological transformation and independent research and development of the products, both the production capacity and the technical level of the products have made great progress, but there are still great deficiencies compared with foreign products. The biggest gap is reflected in the technical level and operating speed of the core operating components, product accuracy retention, machine tool reliability, and overall machine tool manufacturing process level and quality. Reliability is a key indicator of the quality of high-end heavy-duty machines. At present, the average trouble-free working time of domestic CNC heavy-duty machine tools is about 300 hours, while the imported high-end heavy-duty machine tools have an average trouble-free working time of more than 2000 hours.

With the enhancement of product and industrial structure adjustment of China's machine tool industry, the proportion of CNC machine tools and high-end machine tools has increased significantly, and the proportion of low-end products has continued to decrease. At present, the localization rate of machine tool industry has increased to 70%. Luo Baihui, executive secretary of the International Association of Mould & Hardware Plastics Industry Suppliers, believes that while the machine tool industry is growing at a high speed, further accelerating industry and product structure adjustment and promoting industrial upgrading is still the primary and urgent task of China's machine tool industry.

In addition to traditional power generation and petrochemical equipment, new energy equipment such as wind power and nuclear power are also becoming a major driving force for rapid growth and technological progress in the machine tool industry. According to Luo Baihui, "The processing of new energy equipment will become the main force of machine tool demand, which requires a variety of precision, large-scale CNC, special machine tools and supporting. Advanced equipment manufacturing technology, especially advanced machine tool equipment is the new energy equipment manufacturing industry. The fundamental guarantee of the upgrade."

Wind power experts said that the overall design and load calculation capability of large wind turbines is poor. The design and production capacity of control systems, generators, gearboxes and bearings are poor. The bearings and control systems of wind turbines need to be imported from abroad. Although China's wind power equipment manufacturing industry is developing at a fast pace, there are not many enterprises that have core technologies, and key components are basically dependent on imports. The key to restricting its improvement is that domestic manufacturing processes and processing equipment are relatively backward.

Nuclear power equipment manufacturing is also facing a similar situation. According to reports, a nuclear power plant requires more than 200 pumps of various types. The main pump is a key component located in the heart of the nuclear island. It is the key to the nuclear power operation to control the water cycle. Although the structure of the nuclear island main pump is not more complicated than other pumps, it is extremely demanding and must have absolute reliability. The processing of the main pump pressure parts and functional parts requires high-precision and reliable machine tools. It is precisely because there is no corresponding machine tool processing equipment, the nuclear island main pump has long been subject to people.

In addition, the production of million kilowatt-scale nuclear power plant pressure vessels, etc., requires 10,000 tons of press forging. Subsequent cutting operations require processing equipment such as ultra-heavy-duty CNC vertical lathes, super-heavy-duty CNC horizontal lathes, and large mast multi-axis linkage CNC boring and milling machines. These workpieces are expensive and have no spare parts, requiring a 100% yield, so there is a high demand for reliability and stability of the machine.

At present, industry leaders have realized that energy equipment, especially new energy equipment, is a gold mine, and has begun to actively develop related machine tools. The XKD2755×570-2M CNC fixed beam double gantry mobile boring and milling machine independently developed by Wuzhong is suitable for the processing of large-sized parts such as wind power gears; the world's largest heavy-duty TK69 independently developed by Qi Er Machine Tool
32 CNC double-column floor milling and boring machine provides key processing machine tools for processing large-scale hydropower units and nuclear power plant equipment. The first domestic solar automatic silicon multi-wire slicer has also been successfully developed.

Some experts believe that the demand for machine tools in the field of energy equipment is large, high precision and high reliability. Through the establishment of a long-term cooperation mechanism, the energy equipment manufacturing industry and the machine tool industry will help the two sides to connect the supply and demand, determine the demonstration project and support the unit; help the two sides to select the joint point, find the breakthrough, formulate the action plan, and track the application effect. In the future cooperation, both parties should gradually establish project management methods and form a project-wide supervision system to guide enterprises to deploy cutting-edge technologies, equipment development and independent innovation in advance, and further promote the autonomy of domestic high-end CNC equipment.

At present, the successful connection between the machine tool industry and the energy equipment manufacturing industry needs to explore the corresponding model. It is understood that the machine tool industry began to grasp the application of high-end CNC machine tools in high-end users since 2005. At that time, the national defense industry was selected as a key application area. Some insiders believe that we can learn from the successful experience of the docking of the machine tool industry and the national defense industry, and invite energy companies to discuss together, ask them to talk about the needs, talk about the products to be processed, talk about the processing technology and requirements, and connect the supply and demand, and then confirm the demonstration. Engineering and support units. In Luo Baihui's view, strengthening cooperation and mutual support between machine tools and suppliers can not only promote the localization and autonomy of energy equipment, but also promote the structural adjustment and technological progress of the domestic machine tool industry, and achieve a win-win situation. As a classification of the equipment manufacturing industry, the development of the machine tool industry, especially CNC machine tools, will be strongly supported by downstream demand. According to the special plan of “high-grade CNC machine tools and basic manufacturing equipment”, by 2020, about 80% of high-end CNC machine tools and basic manufacturing equipment required for aerospace, shipbuilding, automobile and power generation equipment manufacturing will be based on domestic and future development of China's machine tool industry. Very broad.

The downstream industry leads the machine tool market supply and demand docking
Li Jingming, deputy secretary-general of China Machine Tool Industry Association, said that the downstream industries of China's machine tool industry include aviation, aerospace, shipbuilding, electric power, energy, automobiles, rail transit, high-speed railway, national defense and military industry during the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" period. Even for a longer period of time, large-scale and deep-level structural adjustments will be carried out, which will bring huge business opportunities to the machine tool industry.

1. Automotive industry
The automotive (including parts) industry has always been the largest user industry for machine tools. During the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan” period, the average annual growth rate of automobile production and sales exceeded 20%. In 2010, the number of cars produced and sold reached 18.26 million and 18.061 million, an increase of 32.44% and 32.37% respectively over the previous year. During the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” period, due to the constraints of energy, environment and transportation factors and the high base deceleration effect, the growth rate of automobile production and sales will be slower than during the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan” period. However, from the per capita car ownership in China (the number of Chinese car ownership in 2010 is 48, the world average is 140) and the per capita GDP growth, the Chinese auto market, especially the second and third-tier markets and the rural market are still There is a large room for development.

It is reported that in the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” of the automobile industry, the annual production of automobiles in 2015 is planned to be 25 million units. Dong Yang, head of the Automobile Industry Association, predicts 30 million units, and the total capacity of major automobile companies in 2015 is more than 30 million units. This undoubtedly provides a big market for machine tools. Therefore, 2011 is the first time to stimulate the delisting of automobile consumption policies (the small-displacement passenger car purchase tax concessions were cancelled at the beginning of the year), and the increase in the number of small passenger cars in some large cities will inevitably affect the people's car buying psychology. It is estimated that the auto market will cool down this year, but it is still possible to maintain a growth rate of no less than 10%.

The machine tools required by the automotive industry should first be efficient and highly reliable, but also have sufficient precision and precision stability, but also have moderate flexibility, so not only need a large number of general-purpose CNC machine tools, but also a lot of CNC and Non-CNC dedicated machine tools (such as combination machine tools, etc.).
2. Rail transit industry
The construction and transformation of China's railways with high speed and speed and heavy load has entered the “fast lane” of development. In the five years from 2010, a large-scale investment of about 700 billion yuan will be maintained every year, which will bring huge business opportunities to the machine tool industry. At the same time, by 2015, China will build 79 urban rail transit lines in 22 cities with a total investment of 882 billion yuan, which also provides a market for machine tool products.

The demand for machine tools in the rail transit industry is multifaceted. One is locomotives (electric locomotives and electric drive diesel locomotives) and vehicle manufacturing. The second is the routine maintenance of the wheel and axle manufacturing machines, as well as rail processing and high-speed rail sleeper processing. These above-mentioned processing and manufacturing are in urgent need of general-purpose CNC gold-cutting machine tools, such as machining centers and CNC vertical vehicles. Special CNC cutting machines are also needed, such as track plate grinders and axle grinders. There is also a need for forming machines such as presses and bending machines. Obviously, the rail transit industry has become a very important emerging customer base in the Chinese machine tool market today.

3. Shipbuilding industry
In 2010, the production situation of China's shipbuilding industry was relatively good (from January to November, the national shipbuilding completion volume was 56.76 million DWT, a year-on-year increase of 55.4%; the newly-accepted ship order volume was 63.98 million DWT, which was 2.8 times that of the same period of last year), and currently China The order volume of hand-held vessels is still sufficient (as of the end of November last year, it was 1.9936 million DWT), so the production situation of China's shipbuilding industry will still be better in 2011. However, the recovery of the international shipbuilding market is weak, the ship price decline trend is obvious, and the structure of China's ship production capacity is unbalanced (low-end ordinary ship type overcapacity, high-end capacity is insufficient). In the context of increased pressure on RMB appreciation, China Ships in 2011 The operational risks facing the industry cannot be ignored.

As an important customer of machine tools, the ship supporting equipment (low- and low-speed diesel engines, crankshafts, propellers, deck machinery, etc.) has made great progress during the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan” period, and many projects have been built and expanded. However, the funds for these projects have been basically in place, and the ordering of heavy-duty (including super-heavy) machine tools for key processing equipment has been basically completed. Obviously, the order of heavy-duty machine tools will be significantly reduced in the ship supporting equipment industry in 2011, and there will still be new demand for other types of machine tools.

4. Wind power and nuclear power equipment manufacturing industry
New energy has become the top priority of China's energy strategy. This paper focuses on wind power and nuclear power equipment that are closely related to machine tools.

Wind power has developed rapidly. In the six years from 2004 to 2009, the annual growth rate of wind power installed capacity exceeded 100%. It is estimated that the installed capacity will reach 35 million kilowatts by the end of 2010 and 100 million kilowatts by 2020. Now megawatt wind turbines in China have been mass-produced, with a maximum of 3MW.

However, China's wind power equipment manufacturing industry is still in its infancy, except for a few strong companies, most of which only assemble the whole machine through technology transfer. On the one hand, there is a low-end overcapacity, and the entire industry needs to improve its technical capabilities and equipment level. Naturally, it needs to purchase advanced machine tools, especially large-scale CNC general-purpose and special-purpose machine tools.

Nuclear power is a clean energy source that countries are competing to develop. In 2010, China's nuclear power installed capacity was 10.8 million kilowatts, and 23 nuclear power units were under construction, accounting for 40% of the world's units under construction. Originally planned to achieve 40 million kilowatts of nuclear power installed in China in 2020, but in order to reduce carbon dioxide emissions and consider the reality, the upcoming medium- and long-term nuclear power planning is expected to adjust this indicator to more than 70 million kilowatts. During the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" period, it will become the peak period of China's nuclear power construction. The annual investment in nuclear power construction will exceed 70 billion yuan, and nuclear power equipment will account for about 5% to 6% of the total investment in nuclear power projects. Therefore, nuclear power equipment manufacturers will also have demand for high-end CNC machine tools.

5. Aviation manufacturing
The Chinese aviation industry is on the rise. In addition to the great progress made in the military aircraft series, the eye-catching C919 large passenger aircraft has signed 100 start-up orders and achieved its first flight in 2014. The ARJ21 new regional passenger aircraft in the test flight forensics stage has accumulated 340 orders, and the development capabilities of other helicopters and general aircraft have also been significantly enhanced.

In the aerospace industry, China is accelerating the upgrading of satellite technology and product replacement and the development of large-thrust rockets. Manned space flight, lunar exploration project and Beidou navigation system have achieved significant phase results.
In 2011, the aerospace industry will have new demands for CNC machine tools, especially high-speed, high-efficiency, high-precision, multi-axis, high-end CNC machine tools, which may include automatic tape laying machines and automatic wire laying machines for manufacturing composite components. .

6, machinery industry
The machinery industry mentioned here refers to the 12 major industries that the China Machine Association system belongs to. They are the basic user industries of machine tools. In 2010, China's machinery industry has a good production and operation environment. The annual sales value exceeded 13 trillion yuan, an increase of more than 30% over the previous year. The increase in import and export volume was also 30%, and the increase in profits may exceed 45%. In 2011, the production and sales of the machinery industry will maintain a good growth momentum. Although the growth rate will fall back, it is expected to be above 15%. The increase in fixed asset investment will also be higher than the national level, and a considerable part of the investment is in the purchase of production equipment such as machine tools. According to Luo Baihui, the executive secretary of the International Association of Molds and Hardware and Plastics Industry Suppliers, large and medium-sized enterprises and some foreign-invested enterprises will focus on high-end CNC machine tools, while small and medium-sized enterprises, especially private SMEs, mostly purchase medium and low-end CNC machine tools. For ordinary machine tools and non-CNC dedicated and specialized machine tools, there is also a large demand, and low-end and mid-range machine tools will also account for a small proportion.
    

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