Academician Ni Weidou talks about new energy: it is not appropriate to pursue scale and not to grab the top spot in the world

With the historical highs of electricity consumption in various places, the “electricity shortage” in some regions has arrived ahead of schedule, and how to develop new energy has once again attracted attention.
The potential of new energy is big, but “the water is hard to quench the thirst”
Reporter: With new energy becoming a world trend, China also has great expectations and enthusiasm for the development of new energy. How do you view China's new energy development prospects?
Ni Weidou: To discuss new energy sources, we must first understand what new energy is. At present, non-water renewable energy is often defined as new energy, but this is only part of new energy. In my opinion, the use of new technologies to achieve the clean and efficient use of traditional energy sources is also a new energy source.
Now, everyone has high enthusiasm for the development of new energy. In the long run, renewable energy has great potential, but I don't think it can expect too much of new energy in the short term. According to the current energy consumption level test, by 2020, China's total energy consumption will reach 4.5 billion tons of standard coal, but the renewable energy (water-containing energy) output is equivalent to 600 million tons of standard coal, accounting for about 13% of the total energy consumption. , relying on simple and vigorous development of new energy, far from hydrolyzing near thirst.
On the one hand, China's energy is in short supply, but on the other hand, it is a huge waste of traditional energy. If energy efficiency is to be improved in each link such as transformation, storage and transportation, and terminal utilization of traditional energy sources, it will save a lot of energy. In particular, terminal energy-saving has an amplification effect on front-end energy conservation. According to estimates, the terminal can save 1%, which can save 4% to 5% of the front-end.
Taking the use of waste heat from cement plants and iron and steel plants as an example, in 2009, the amount of heat generated by cement plants was basically the same as that of wind power. The improvement of traditional internal combustion engines is also a good example of improving the efficiency of traditional energy use. At present, only 20% of the energy in an automobile's fuel tank drives the car, and the energy that really drives people is less than 1%. Why? In the energy conversion and utilization of various links gradually consumed.
At present, the most important thing to be taken care of is the improvement and rational use of traditional energy sources. If we ignore this point, blindly developing the "installed capacity" of renewable energy will cause a dislocation in time, and it will be a long-term solution.
The core technology is that the market can't be replaced. Even if it can be replaced, it is also a low-grade technical reporter: China's new energy industry is not too late to start, but why is the core technology controlled by others? How can we change this kind of predicament?
Ni Weidou: China's new energy industry, or the development of clean energy industry has a considerable scale, and the country's support is also very strong. However, China's new energy industry still faces many bottlenecks. For example, many key equipment and technologies in China's solar energy industry are imported from abroad. In fact, they are still at the low end of high-end industries. In a sense, they are still foundries.
What is the reason? Because the new energy industry does not emerge suddenly, it must have a very strong manufacturing base, material basis, and so on. And any core technology, the market can not be replaced, even in exchange for low-end technology. For the wind power industry, which has a relatively low technical threshold, in order to make quick money, manufacturers are basically cooperating with foreign countries to introduce technology and introduce products quickly. As a result, companies do not do research work and wait for new technologies and equipment to come out.
I know a solar energy manufacturing company and spent 2.2 billion yuan a few years ago to buy more advanced solar coating equipment at the time. Nowadays, the technology is updated and upgraded. According to this equipment, the price is high, and it will be a loss; if not, it will not work because it is already behind. In the end, it can only continue to be introduced into the old road of repeated introduction.
The emerging industries are developing very fast and the technology is very high. Foreign countries want to put you down, so we need core technologies. If we do not have the idea of ​​moving forward with creativity, we can only continue the old path of the past. Not because it is a new industry, we stand on the same starting line with the world and we can achieve leapfrog development. If quality is not enough and technology is not available, high-end industries cannot really become high-end.
How to avoid the low-end manufacturing of high-end industries? It is not enough to rely entirely on market forces, because the market comes from what comes quickly. Faced with a new round of competition, we should consider the combination of the market and the country’s will and concentrate on making efforts to seize a few key points in the new energy industry to break through. Only in this way can we avoid the low-end manufacturing of high-end industries and repeat the low value-added foundry. The old road.
It is not appropriate to set a nationwide effort to pursue a new energy scale, let alone grab the first reporter from the world: At present, the state adopts a subsidy method to promote new energy. Can this model continue? What's your suggestion?
Ni Weidou: The development of the new energy industry is not profitable at the initial stage, so it needs the strong support of the state, but the country’s money must be used properly, and it must be a good economic account. In the case of unclear routes for the development of new technologies, it is not advisable to adopt a model that aims at the development of the nation and strives for the pursuit of a new energy source, not to grab the top spot in the world and to seek efficiency.
The development of new energy requires new thinking. It is either that raw materials are renewable or truly renewable energy. We must carefully analyze the full life cycle efficiency, environment, economy, and the entire industry chain and full interest chain of renewable energy. In the whole industry chain, the relevant departments must consider the processing, transportation, conversion, energy transfer of renewable raw materials, as well as various costs and energy consumption such as conversion sites, transportation corridors, and labor.
Renewable energy needs to be analyzed on the basis of large-scale development. An industry, from the upstream, who benefits, who benefit downstream, only truly benefit the stakeholders, it is possible to promote the development of the industry, so that people really accept it. If the industrial chain and interest chain are not smoothed, the development of the energy industry will be hindered. Taking wind power as an example, wind turbine manufacturers are the biggest beneficiaries of the entire interest chain. However, at present, the state subsidies for wind power are for power generation companies, and there is no share of the power grid. However, access to wind power requires supporting facilities, such as standby power supply and control equipment. If the power grid does not share profits, will it actively participate?
Therefore, the development of new energy is a good thing, but it is necessary to count down the accounts, but also to calculate the general ledger, to seize some key points. Relevant departments should also be more rational and prudent when formulating renewable energy plans and related companies in the development of renewable energy.