Confidence is better than expected in the important 2012 steel market in gold

The central government set the tone of “stability for progress” in 2012, but it is easier to maintain stable and rapid economic development despite the continuing economic downturn at home and abroad. Moreover, China still faces the need to adjust its structure and control inflation expectations. Therefore, under the foundation of stable stability, it is our macro-policy that regulates a “disquieting heart”. Even before the meeting with the Central Economic Work Conference, the deposit reserve ratio has been lowered in advance. This also indicates that Our policy in 2012 was not as smooth as it surfaced.

At the 2010 Central Economic Work Conference, the adjustment of the fiscal and monetary policy was "a sound monetary policy and a proactive fiscal policy." However, in the first half of 2011, we saw a monthly increase and once a month. The rate hike. Then the same set of adjustments this year will produce different results under different economic circumstances. I think this may be quite large. While stabilizing economic growth has become the first task, and in the context of a harsh domestic and international economic environment, it is not only necessary but also necessary to relax.

Recently, various industries have also been sending out signals of relaxation, such as our largest pillar industry real estate industry. Although bad news continues, but at the end of last month at the housing security conference, Deputy Prime Minister Li Keqiang said that local governments can purchase commercial housing to serve as security housing. Actually, it is an implicit rescue signal sent to the local government by the central government. For the construction of affordable housing in 2012, the Central Government clearly stipulated that more than 7 million sets of newly-built affordable housing and shantytowns will be transformed into residential buildings, with a total of more than 5 million sets completed. The volume of work completed will be higher than in 2011, and the total investment will exceed RMB 1 trillion. The protection of housing construction is an important link for real estate companies and even for the local economy.

In addition, investment in agriculture, rural areas, and agriculture, especially in agriculture, continued to accelerate. The Minister of Water Resources pointed out that since last year, the construction of farmland water conservancy nationwide has experienced an upsurge. The accumulated investment will be 216.3 billion yuan, and will exceed 400 billion yuan in 2012, an increase of nearly 200 billion yuan. In the automotive industry, the State Administration of Taxation issued a document to eliminate the transfer of vehicle purchase tax, transfer of household registration, and change of business from January 1, next year. The implementation of the new regulations will help reduce the tax burden on vehicles and will also play an active role in the active auto market. effect. I believe that in 2012, in order to stabilize economic growth, in addition to structural tax cuts, there are more industrial stimulus policies introduced. Although the expected strength may be less than 2008, the overall operating environment should be better than the second half of last year.

For the 2012 steel market, we need not be so pessimistic. It is true that the market is indeed facing a lot of tangled issues, such as tight funding, declining sales, and increased operating costs. However, we must also realize that the economic environment is already changing and the money supply will only continue to relax and will not be closed again. Tight, but the impact on the market, the steel mills, its production is also gradually lower, the data show that steel production in November was only 1.663 million tons, is expected to continue to decline in production in December, and even the first quarter of next year will slow production This will certainly play a beneficial role in stabilizing the current market.

Although various difficulties are still faced in 2012, challenges and opportunities coexist. In accordance with the spirit of "striving for stability and progress," we must first move forward steadily. The author believes that next year the market will show a pattern of shock upwards. The steel market is still hopeful. After the severe winter of 2011, the market will continue to show its vitality in 2012.